An enhanced extreme precipitation (EXP) in or near cities compared to rural areas has been widely observed and verified in individual urban sites. However, at a sufficiently large region, the robustness of evidence for the urbanization contribution to the estimate of EXP trends is still lacking. Here, we present clear evidence from observational records of a dense national station network that a significant

The interannual variability of Meiyu-Baiu rainfall has amplified in recent decades. Observational and modeling efforts have revealed large-scale circulations could affect variability of Meiyu-Baiu rainfall by altering moisture sources and transport mechanisms. However, the contributions and thermodynamic processes of major moisture sources, along with their interannual variability, remain unclear.

Multi-year droughts (MYDs) are severe natural hazards that have become more common due to climate change. Given their significant societal impact compared to droughts of shorter duration, it is crucial to better understand the drivers of MYDs. Using reanalysis data, this study provides a historical overview of MYDs in California, Western Europe, India, central Argentina, South Africa, and southeast

From July 29th to August 2nd, 2023, an exceptional precipitation event, referred as 237HRE, struck North China, causing widespread flooding in the Haihe River basin. Utilizing reanalysis data and the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, this study delves into the reasons behind the unusual westward extension and northward shift of the Western Pacific Subtropical High (WPSH), as well as the

In recent years, the frequent occurrence of marine heatwaves (MHWs) has affected the ecological environment and caused considerable socioeconomic impact. Consequently, MHWs prediction has received increasing attention. This study aims to evaluate the short-term (months to interannual timescales) MHWs prediction skill of the First Institute of Oceanography-Climate Prediction System version 2.0 (FIO-CPS

Global warming and its implications for extreme events are important subjects of discussion worldwide. This study analyzes the changes in intense tropical cyclone (INT TC) activities over the Arabian Sea Basin (ARB) from 1981 to 2020 during the October–November season, along with its connection to the rise in thermal energy stored in the upper ocean and column-averaged atmospheric instability of the

Compound drought and heat wave events (CDHWs) are weather and climate hazards whose frequency is increasing in many regions across the globe. Here, we applied a novel Lagrangian atmospheric moisture and heat tracking framework to the outputs of the Lagrangian FLEXPART model driven by the ERA5 reanalysis to quantify the moisture and sensible heat flux anomalies for CDHWs occurred in the Iberian Peninsula

This study investigates potential wildfire risks across different global warming scenarios through a comparative analysis of two prominent fire weather indices: the McArthur Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI) and the Canadian Forest Fire Danger Index (FWI), leveraging the latest multi-model projections from the 6th phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). Utilizing the Extreme Gradient

Historically, Ethiopia has experienced recurrent droughts and floods, which may intensify due to climate change. This study has evaluated the performance of 45 models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) in simulating ten extreme precipitation indices against corresponding indices from the Enhancing National Climate Services (ENACTS) during short rainy (February–May, FMAM)

Extreme events, particularly very high temperatures, are expected to increase because of climate change. It is thus essential that localised studies be done to quantify the magnitude of potential changes so that proper planning, especially effective adaptation measures, can be affected. This study analysed annual extreme daily maximum temperatures for future climate change scenarios at 22 locations

Different heatwave types exert distinctive impacts on the socio-economic and ecosystems, but the potential mechanisms for different heatwave types remain poorly understood. In this study, we identify the hot spots of daytime, nighttime, and compound heatwaves over China during 1991–2022, and provide a systematic investigation of their distinctive atmospheric configurations. The results show that the

The Tibetan Plateau (TP) has consistently garnered attention due to its sensitivity to global climate change and the implications of future global warming. This study employs the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, driven by three global models from the Sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), to investigate future mean and extreme climate changes over the TP. WRF's historical

Extreme El Niño events entail important socio-economic challenges, both in regions such as South America directly affected by their impacts and in regions around the world that are influenced by the associated teleconnections. Uncertainty remains about the ability of recent climate models to reproduce the characteristics and impacts of extreme El Niño events. In this study, we evaluate the ability

From October 2020 to early 2023, Eastern Africa experienced five consecutive failed (SPEI -2.6) rainy seasons, resulting in the worst drought in 40 years. This led to harvest failures, livestock losses, water scarcity, and conflicts, leaving approximately 4.35 million people in need of humanitarian aid. To understand the role of human-induced climate change in the drought, we analysed rainfall trends

In this study, we evaluated the Conformal Cubic Atmospheric Model's (CCAM) ability to simulate the characteristics of severe Tropical Cyclone (TC) Hina, which occurred in the Southwest Pacific in 1985. We compared the model's performance using both a quasi-uniform grid and a variable-resolution grid to investigate differences in the representation of TC Hina's properties, such as tracks and intensity

The last decade has seen numerous record-shattering heatwaves in all corners of the globe. In the aftermath of these devastating events, there is interest in identifying worst-case thresholds or upper bounds that quantify just how hot temperatures can become. Generalized Extreme Value theory provides a data-driven estimate of extreme thresholds; however, upper bounds may be exceeded by future events

Precipitation brought by cyclone systems has long been known as a major contributor to devastating flood events.Recent post-tropical cyclones (PTCs), which transform from tropical cyclones (TC) to extratropical cyclones (ETC) in the mid-latitudes, are among the strongest cyclones in the mid-latitude European region. Understanding PTCs and their precipitation behavior, particularly in the context of

Due to their rapidly changing atmospheric processes, forecasting thunderstorms resulting from the merger of isolated cells is a complex task for highly-resolved numerical weather prediction models. This study employed a novel approach to establish the processes that drive updrafts and downdrafts in the merger of isolated thunderstorm cells that produced heavy rainfall and flooding in Kumasi and other

Rising summer heat and more frequent and intense heatwaves impact countless metropolitan regions, including Greater Sydney, Australia. An analysis of historic air temperature measurements (1859–2020) reveals a notable increase in the number of ‘hot’ (≥35 °C) days during austral summers. While in the first 120 years of records 351 hot days were identified, 478 hot days were recorded during 2000–2020

Extreme weather events are recognized as major drivers of crop yield losses, which threaten food security and farmers’ incomes. Given the increasing frequency and intensity of extreme weather under climate change, it is crucial to quantify the related future yield damages of important crops to inform prospective climate change adaptation planning. In this study, we present a statistical modeling approach

The Taklimakan desert, situated in western China and known for its scarcity of precipitation, experienced an unprecedented precipitation event on 13-14th May 2021. However, the moisture sources and the reason for such extreme precipitation in the heart of the desert remain unexplored. Here, leveraging rain gauge observations from Tazhong Station, situated in the heartland of the Taklimakan Desert,

Drought to flood abrupt alternation (DFAA) events, as a special category of compound extreme events that suddenly shift from drought to flood conditions, have significantly greater impacts than individual drought or flood events. In this paper, we have utilized a multifactorial drought index and flood index to identify daily DFAA events occurring in mainland China and in major impact areas during the

Most droughts go unnamed. At the time they are happening, they are generally referred to simply as “the drought.” After the fact, they are typically designated by a year or run of years rather than by a name: 1927–29, for instance. But in recent decades, proper names have increasingly been bestowed on droughts in southeast Australia in an informal although widely accepted practice. Examples include

Understanding short-duration intense rainfall is crucial for mitigating flash floods, landslides, soil erosion, and pollution incidents. Yet, most observations from rain gauges are only available at the daily resolution. We use the new Global Sub Daily Rainfall dataset to explore extreme rainfall at both daily and sub-daily durations worldwide. Employing Single Gauge Analysis (SGA) and pioneering global-scale

Australia's Murray-Darling Basin experienced three consecutive years of meteorological drought across 2017–2019, collectively named the ‘Tinderbox Drought’. Rainfall deficits during the three-year drought were most pronounced in the Australian cool season (April to September). Deficits in both the cool season and annual total rainfall were unprecedented in the instrumental record. However, the instrumental

High-resolution climate change projections are required to evaluate local and regional climate change impacts. We used CCAM (Conformal Cubic Atmospheric Model) to dynamically downscale CMIP6 GCMs (Global Climate Models) over Australia under three emissions scenarios, producing a set of 60 simulations at a 10 km resolution. Previous work has evaluated the performance of the downscaled models in the

In regions where groundwater forms the primary source of drinking water, comprehending the prospective availability of subsurface water resources due to climate change is of paramount importance.

Widespread extreme climate events cause many fatalities, economic losses and have a huge impact on critical infrastructure. It is therefore of utmost importance to estimate the frequency and associated consequences of spatially concurrent extremes. Impact studies of climate extremes are severely hampered by the lack of extreme observations, and even large ensembles of climate simulations often do not

This study quantifies the influences of anthropogenic forcing to date on precipitation over Aotearoa New Zealand (ANZ). Large ensembles of simulations from the weather@home regional climate model experiments are analysed under two scenarios, a natural (NAT) or counter-factual scenario which excludes human-induced changes to the climate system and an anthropogenic (ANT) or factual scenario. The impacts

Landslides are among the most destructive natural disasters, having huge socioeconomic impacts. Here, we investigate future changes in potential rainfall-induced landslide activities and their socioeconomic consequences in mainland China using CMIP6 simulations under five combined scenarios of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and the Representative Concentration Pathways (SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4

A rare subseasonal-to-seasonal phenomenon – two consecutive flash drought events interrupted by a period of recovery – occurred across eastern Oklahoma, Arkansas, and southern Missouri, spanning the summer and early fall of 2022. These flash drought events (the first in June–July, the second in August–September) led to severe (D2) and extreme (D3) drought conditions via the United States Drought Monitor

Recently, the intensity and frequency of heat waves (HWs) have been increased worldwide. Particularly in 2022, Europe was severely affected by unprecedented HWs, which caused approximately 61,672 deaths and 11,324 deaths in Europe and Spain, respectively. In this study, we investigate the mechanisms of the HWs in southwestern Europe (SWEU) to identify the differences between typical HWs and the extreme

Hydrological models that are used to analyse flood risk induced by tropical cyclones often input ERA5 reanalysis data. However, ERA5 precipitation has large systematic biases, especially over heavy precipitation events like Tropical Cyclones, compromising its usefulness in such scenarios. Few studies to date have performed bias correction of ERA5 precipitation and none of them for extreme rainfall

Two consecutive failed rainy seasons in the southern part of Madagascar in 2019–21 had devastating impacts on the population, including an amplification of the ongoing food insecurity in the area. The drought events were second in severity only to the 1990–92 drought and were estimated in a previous study to have a return period of 135 years. In this study, the physical mechanisms that led to these

Marine heatwaves (MHWs) have recently been recognized as extreme climate events considering their devastating impacts on marine ecosystems. Our study explored the spatial and temporal variability of short (duration <10 days) and long MHWs in nine sub-regions around the Australian coastal region using the original (5-day) and an updated longer duration (10-day) criteria for MHW identification based

Severe compound drought-heatwave events were observed over three regions of the Contiguous United States (CONUS), Northwest (NW), Great Plains (GP), and Northeast (NE) regions, during July and August 2022. In this study, we have found that the developments of these drought-heatwave events were shaped by different land-atmosphere coupling behaviors which are associated with water and energy limitation

The June 2013 extreme precipitation event in Alberta resulted in devastating flash floods that caused significant economic losses and societal disruption. In this study, two high-resolution experiments were conducted using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to study the change of the 2013 Alberta extreme precipitation event in a warmer climate. The control experiment was forced with 6-hourly

Compound flash drought and heatwave (FDHW) events have garnered increasing amounts of attention due to their substantial impacts on agriculture, water resources, and public health. However, studies on their intensity and classification in China are limited. In this study, we classified FDHW events in China from 1980 to 2022 using a classification framework designed to address regional patterns and

Hailstorms are severe weather events with the potential for devastating impacts. The consequences can be significantly worsened when hail events are accompanied by strong winds, intensifying both hail momentum and damage to property sidings and windows. Additionally, rainfall extremes during hailstorms can disrupt the drainage systems, potentially leading to flash flooding. Therefore, understanding

In July 2022, regions with elevations exceeding 5 000 m on the inner Tibetan Plateau (TP) witnessed a record-breaking heatwave. But how the atmospheric circulation and soil moisture play roles in the occurrence and maintenance of the heatwave in such high elevation climate sensitive region remains unknown. Here, by using the flow analogue method, we find that negative soil moisture anomalies explain

Rapid urbanisation along the coasts of the world in recent decades has increased their vulnerability to storm surges, especially in response to mean sea level rise. The unique geographical and social conditions of Copenhagen, a major European coastal city, have prompted urban expansion along Køge Bay to the south of the city. However, this new urbanisation area is confronted with the common obstacle

Unprecedentedly large areas were burned during the 2016/17 and 2022/23 fire seasons in south-central Chile (34-39°S). These seasonal-aggregated values were mostly accounted for human-caused wildfires within a limited period in late January 2017 and early February 2023. In this paper, we provide a comprehensive analysis of the meteorological conditions during these events, from local to hemispheric

Terrestrial vegetation plays a vital role in global carbon recycling, but it is also affected by compound events (CEs); however, little is known about the impacts of these CEs on vegetation in terms of their occurrence and magnitude. Using meteorological observations and vegetation indices (leaf area index (LAI), gross primary productivity (GPP), and net primary productivity (NPP)) from 1981 to 2020

Over the past two decades, there has been a significant shift in tropical cyclone (TC) activity in the western North Pacific (WNP) basin during the boreal summer. Our analysis of data spanning from 1979 to 2021 reveals significant shifts in the WNP TC characteristics and rainfall pattern variation. To deepen our understanding of TC-related precipitation dynamics, we expressly address the difference

In this work, we compare the rate of warming of summertime extreme temperatures (summer maximum value of daily maximum temperature; TXx) relative to the local mean (summer mean daily maximum temperature; TXm) over the Northern Hemisphere in observations and one set of large ensemble (LE) simulations. During the 1979–2021 historical period, observations and simulations show robust warming trends in

The frequency of heatwaves in the Arctic is on the rise under global warming. These occurrences not only profoundly impact the local ecological environment but also exert remote effects on East Asia and even the global climate. Yet, there exists a noticeable dearth of research focus on Arctic compound daytime-nighttime heatwaves, limiting our comprehension of Arctic climate dynamics. We investigated

In the present study two extreme events that occurred in the East Coast of Northeast Brazil (ENEB) during 2022 and 2023 were evaluated. These events are becoming increasingly frequent in all regions of Brazil, associated with significant material and human losses, emphasizing the significance of a deeper comprehension of these events. ERA5 global reanalysis data, GOES-16 satellite imagery and pluviometric

The 2022-23 hydrological year in the Lake Titicaca, Desaguadero River, and Lake Poopó hydrological system (TDPS) over the South American Altiplano constituted a historically dry period. This drought was particularly severe during the pre-wet season (October–December), when the TDPS and the adjacent Andean-Amazon region experienced as much as 60% reductions in rainfall. Consequently, Titicaca Lake water

Drought is projected to intensify under warming climate and will continuously threaten global food security. Assessing the risk of yield loss due to drought is key to developing effective agronomic options for farmers and policymakers. However, little has been known about determining the likelihood of reduced crop yield under different drought conditions and defining thresholds that trigger yield loss

The Yangtze River basin experienced record-breaking high temperatures in July–August 2022, leading the China Meteorological Administration to issue its first ever “red heat warning”. We use simulations from the Detection and Attribution Model Intercomparison Project (DAMIP) of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) to investigate the role of anthropogenic drivers in this extreme event

During summer 2020, Southern China experienced an extremely dry and hot summer, which was identified as one of the top ten domestic weather and climate extreme events in 2020 by China Meteorological Administration. Summer mean precipitation, surface air temperature (TAS), and number of hot days (NHD) were about 25% dryer, 1.5 °C warmer, and 11 days larger than the 1981–2010 climatologies. These are

Nigeria's growing population faces an increasing heat burden with potential health risks. The Universal Thermal Comfort Index (UTCI) links outdoor conditions and human well-being but lacks comprehensive data in developing regions like Nigeria. ERA5-HEAT reanalysis offers a solution with gridded UTCI and MRT data, but validation is crucial. Thus, this study evaluates the ERA5-HEAT UTCI against data

The Canadian province of British Columbia (BC) is subjected to large-scale, destructive floods. The most dramatic was a mid-November 2021 event when atmospheric rivers (ARs) linked to high-intensity storms caused heavy rainfall in southwestern BC, triggering catastrophic flooding. This study examines 37 floods from 2000 to 2021 using information from over 250 climatological stations and compares events

The Tinderbox Drought (2017–2019) was one of the most severe droughts recorded in Australia. The extreme summer air temperatures (>40 °C) combined with drought, contributed to the unprecedented Black Summer bushfires in 2019–20 over southeast Australia. Whilst the temperature extremes were largely driven by synoptic processes, it is important to understand to what extent interactions between land and

The occurrence of extreme storm surges and precipitation simultaneously or successively can lead to compound flooding. The interaction between extreme storm surges and precipitation holds significant implications for understanding the potential contributing to compound flood risk in coastal areas. This study examines the likelihood of joint occurrence for compound extreme storm surges and precipitation

The motivation of our study is to provide forecasters and users complementary guidance and tools to identify and predict atmospheric conditions that could lead to life-threatening flash floods. Using hourly and sub-hourly rainfall datasets, proximity radiosondes, ERA5 reanalysis of extreme rainfall events in the UK during 2000–2020, and case studies in 2021, we observe a three-layered atmospheric structure

Dry and humid-heat extremes are two types of heat extremes, each exhibiting unique climatological characteristics and impacts on different sectors of society. Using historical simulations and projections produced under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5) by models from the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), we show a comparative assessment of the