Extreme weather events are recognized as major drivers of crop yield losses, which threaten food security and farmers’ incomes. Given the increasing frequency and intensity of extreme weather under climate change, it is crucial to quantify the related future yield damages of important crops to inform prospective climate change adaptation planning. In this study, we present a statistical modeling approach

The Taklimakan desert, situated in western China and known for its scarcity of precipitation, experienced an unprecedented precipitation event on 13-14th May 2021. However, the moisture sources and the reason for such extreme precipitation in the heart of the desert remain unexplored. Here, leveraging rain gauge observations from Tazhong Station, situated in the heartland of the Taklimakan Desert,

Drought to flood abrupt alternation (DFAA) events, as a special category of compound extreme events that suddenly shift from drought to flood conditions, have significantly greater impacts than individual drought or flood events. In this paper, we have utilized a multifactorial drought index and flood index to identify daily DFAA events occurring in mainland China and in major impact areas during the

Most droughts go unnamed. At the time they are happening, they are generally referred to simply as “the drought.” After the fact, they are typically designated by a year or run of years rather than by a name: 1927–29, for instance. But in recent decades, proper names have increasingly been bestowed on droughts in southeast Australia in an informal although widely accepted practice. Examples include

Understanding short-duration intense rainfall is crucial for mitigating flash floods, landslides, soil erosion, and pollution incidents. Yet, most observations from rain gauges are only available at the daily resolution. We use the new Global Sub Daily Rainfall dataset to explore extreme rainfall at both daily and sub-daily durations worldwide. Employing Single Gauge Analysis (SGA) and pioneering global-scale

Australia's Murray-Darling Basin experienced three consecutive years of meteorological drought across 2017–2019, collectively named the ‘Tinderbox Drought’. Rainfall deficits during the three-year drought were most pronounced in the Australian cool season (April to September). Deficits in both the cool season and annual total rainfall were unprecedented in the instrumental record. However, the instrumental

High-resolution climate change projections are required to evaluate local and regional climate change impacts. We used CCAM (Conformal Cubic Atmospheric Model) to dynamically downscale CMIP6 GCMs (Global Climate Models) over Australia under three emissions scenarios, producing a set of 60 simulations at a 10 km resolution. Previous work has evaluated the performance of the downscaled models in the

In regions where groundwater forms the primary source of drinking water, comprehending the prospective availability of subsurface water resources due to climate change is of paramount importance.

Widespread extreme climate events cause many fatalities, economic losses and have a huge impact on critical infrastructure. It is therefore of utmost importance to estimate the frequency and associated consequences of spatially concurrent extremes. Impact studies of climate extremes are severely hampered by the lack of extreme observations, and even large ensembles of climate simulations often do not

This study quantifies the influences of anthropogenic forcing to date on precipitation over Aotearoa New Zealand (ANZ). Large ensembles of simulations from the weather@home regional climate model experiments are analysed under two scenarios, a natural (NAT) or counter-factual scenario which excludes human-induced changes to the climate system and an anthropogenic (ANT) or factual scenario. The impacts

Landslides are among the most destructive natural disasters, having huge socioeconomic impacts. Here, we investigate future changes in potential rainfall-induced landslide activities and their socioeconomic consequences in mainland China using CMIP6 simulations under five combined scenarios of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and the Representative Concentration Pathways (SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4

A rare subseasonal-to-seasonal phenomenon – two consecutive flash drought events interrupted by a period of recovery – occurred across eastern Oklahoma, Arkansas, and southern Missouri, spanning the summer and early fall of 2022. These flash drought events (the first in June–July, the second in August–September) led to severe (D2) and extreme (D3) drought conditions via the United States Drought Monitor

Recently, the intensity and frequency of heat waves (HWs) have been increased worldwide. Particularly in 2022, Europe was severely affected by unprecedented HWs, which caused approximately 61,672 deaths and 11,324 deaths in Europe and Spain, respectively. In this study, we investigate the mechanisms of the HWs in southwestern Europe (SWEU) to identify the differences between typical HWs and the extreme

Hydrological models that are used to analyse flood risk induced by tropical cyclones often input ERA5 reanalysis data. However, ERA5 precipitation has large systematic biases, especially over heavy precipitation events like Tropical Cyclones, compromising its usefulness in such scenarios. Few studies to date have performed bias correction of ERA5 precipitation and none of them for extreme rainfall

Two consecutive failed rainy seasons in the southern part of Madagascar in 2019–21 had devastating impacts on the population, including an amplification of the ongoing food insecurity in the area. The drought events were second in severity only to the 1990–92 drought and were estimated in a previous study to have a return period of 135 years. In this study, the physical mechanisms that led to these

Marine heatwaves (MHWs) have recently been recognized as extreme climate events considering their devastating impacts on marine ecosystems. Our study explored the spatial and temporal variability of short (duration <10 days) and long MHWs in nine sub-regions around the Australian coastal region using the original (5-day) and an updated longer duration (10-day) criteria for MHW identification based

Severe compound drought-heatwave events were observed over three regions of the Contiguous United States (CONUS), Northwest (NW), Great Plains (GP), and Northeast (NE) regions, during July and August 2022. In this study, we have found that the developments of these drought-heatwave events were shaped by different land-atmosphere coupling behaviors which are associated with water and energy limitation

The June 2013 extreme precipitation event in Alberta resulted in devastating flash floods that caused significant economic losses and societal disruption. In this study, two high-resolution experiments were conducted using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to study the change of the 2013 Alberta extreme precipitation event in a warmer climate. The control experiment was forced with 6-hourly

Compound flash drought and heatwave (FDHW) events have garnered increasing amounts of attention due to their substantial impacts on agriculture, water resources, and public health. However, studies on their intensity and classification in China are limited. In this study, we classified FDHW events in China from 1980 to 2022 using a classification framework designed to address regional patterns and

Hailstorms are severe weather events with the potential for devastating impacts. The consequences can be significantly worsened when hail events are accompanied by strong winds, intensifying both hail momentum and damage to property sidings and windows. Additionally, rainfall extremes during hailstorms can disrupt the drainage systems, potentially leading to flash flooding. Therefore, understanding

In July 2022, regions with elevations exceeding 5 000 m on the inner Tibetan Plateau (TP) witnessed a record-breaking heatwave. But how the atmospheric circulation and soil moisture play roles in the occurrence and maintenance of the heatwave in such high elevation climate sensitive region remains unknown. Here, by using the flow analogue method, we find that negative soil moisture anomalies explain

Rapid urbanisation along the coasts of the world in recent decades has increased their vulnerability to storm surges, especially in response to mean sea level rise. The unique geographical and social conditions of Copenhagen, a major European coastal city, have prompted urban expansion along Køge Bay to the south of the city. However, this new urbanisation area is confronted with the common obstacle

Unprecedentedly large areas were burned during the 2016/17 and 2022/23 fire seasons in south-central Chile (34-39°S). These seasonal-aggregated values were mostly accounted for human-caused wildfires within a limited period in late January 2017 and early February 2023. In this paper, we provide a comprehensive analysis of the meteorological conditions during these events, from local to hemispheric

Terrestrial vegetation plays a vital role in global carbon recycling, but it is also affected by compound events (CEs); however, little is known about the impacts of these CEs on vegetation in terms of their occurrence and magnitude. Using meteorological observations and vegetation indices (leaf area index (LAI), gross primary productivity (GPP), and net primary productivity (NPP)) from 1981 to 2020

Over the past two decades, there has been a significant shift in tropical cyclone (TC) activity in the western North Pacific (WNP) basin during the boreal summer. Our analysis of data spanning from 1979 to 2021 reveals significant shifts in the WNP TC characteristics and rainfall pattern variation. To deepen our understanding of TC-related precipitation dynamics, we expressly address the difference

In this work, we compare the rate of warming of summertime extreme temperatures (summer maximum value of daily maximum temperature; TXx) relative to the local mean (summer mean daily maximum temperature; TXm) over the Northern Hemisphere in observations and one set of large ensemble (LE) simulations. During the 1979–2021 historical period, observations and simulations show robust warming trends in

The frequency of heatwaves in the Arctic is on the rise under global warming. These occurrences not only profoundly impact the local ecological environment but also exert remote effects on East Asia and even the global climate. Yet, there exists a noticeable dearth of research focus on Arctic compound daytime-nighttime heatwaves, limiting our comprehension of Arctic climate dynamics. We investigated

In the present study two extreme events that occurred in the East Coast of Northeast Brazil (ENEB) during 2022 and 2023 were evaluated. These events are becoming increasingly frequent in all regions of Brazil, associated with significant material and human losses, emphasizing the significance of a deeper comprehension of these events. ERA5 global reanalysis data, GOES-16 satellite imagery and pluviometric

The 2022-23 hydrological year in the Lake Titicaca, Desaguadero River, and Lake Poopó hydrological system (TDPS) over the South American Altiplano constituted a historically dry period. This drought was particularly severe during the pre-wet season (October–December), when the TDPS and the adjacent Andean-Amazon region experienced as much as 60% reductions in rainfall. Consequently, Titicaca Lake water

Drought is projected to intensify under warming climate and will continuously threaten global food security. Assessing the risk of yield loss due to drought is key to developing effective agronomic options for farmers and policymakers. However, little has been known about determining the likelihood of reduced crop yield under different drought conditions and defining thresholds that trigger yield loss

The Yangtze River basin experienced record-breaking high temperatures in July–August 2022, leading the China Meteorological Administration to issue its first ever “red heat warning”. We use simulations from the Detection and Attribution Model Intercomparison Project (DAMIP) of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) to investigate the role of anthropogenic drivers in this extreme event

During summer 2020, Southern China experienced an extremely dry and hot summer, which was identified as one of the top ten domestic weather and climate extreme events in 2020 by China Meteorological Administration. Summer mean precipitation, surface air temperature (TAS), and number of hot days (NHD) were about 25% dryer, 1.5 °C warmer, and 11 days larger than the 1981–2010 climatologies. These are

Nigeria's growing population faces an increasing heat burden with potential health risks. The Universal Thermal Comfort Index (UTCI) links outdoor conditions and human well-being but lacks comprehensive data in developing regions like Nigeria. ERA5-HEAT reanalysis offers a solution with gridded UTCI and MRT data, but validation is crucial. Thus, this study evaluates the ERA5-HEAT UTCI against data

The Canadian province of British Columbia (BC) is subjected to large-scale, destructive floods. The most dramatic was a mid-November 2021 event when atmospheric rivers (ARs) linked to high-intensity storms caused heavy rainfall in southwestern BC, triggering catastrophic flooding. This study examines 37 floods from 2000 to 2021 using information from over 250 climatological stations and compares events

The Tinderbox Drought (2017–2019) was one of the most severe droughts recorded in Australia. The extreme summer air temperatures (>40 °C) combined with drought, contributed to the unprecedented Black Summer bushfires in 2019–20 over southeast Australia. Whilst the temperature extremes were largely driven by synoptic processes, it is important to understand to what extent interactions between land and

The occurrence of extreme storm surges and precipitation simultaneously or successively can lead to compound flooding. The interaction between extreme storm surges and precipitation holds significant implications for understanding the potential contributing to compound flood risk in coastal areas. This study examines the likelihood of joint occurrence for compound extreme storm surges and precipitation

The motivation of our study is to provide forecasters and users complementary guidance and tools to identify and predict atmospheric conditions that could lead to life-threatening flash floods. Using hourly and sub-hourly rainfall datasets, proximity radiosondes, ERA5 reanalysis of extreme rainfall events in the UK during 2000–2020, and case studies in 2021, we observe a three-layered atmospheric structure

Dry and humid-heat extremes are two types of heat extremes, each exhibiting unique climatological characteristics and impacts on different sectors of society. Using historical simulations and projections produced under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5) by models from the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), we show a comparative assessment of the

The extraction of individual events from continuous time series is a common challenge in many extreme value studies. In the field of environmental science, various methods and algorithms for event identification (de-clustering) have been applied in the past. The distinctive features of extreme events, such as their temporal evolutions, durations, and inter-arrival times, vary significantly from one

Northeast China, recognized as a global flash drought hotspot and a region of nationally important commercial grains and ecological fragility, is highly susceptible to the profound impacts of droughts on both food security and ecological safety. However, the regional-scale characteristics, possible causes and impacts of flash droughts across Northeast China are rarely investigated. Soil moisture data

Severe floods and landslides in Eastern Northeast Brazil in May 2022 led to severe impacts with human losses and material damage. These disasters were a direct consequence of extremely heavy rainfall days. A rapid attribution study was performed to assess the role of anthropogenic climate change in 7 and 15-day mean rainfall over this region. A dense network of 389 weather stations was analysed resulting

Drought is one of the key drivers of food insecurity in Afghanistan, which is among the most food insecure countries in the world. In this study, we build on previous research and seek to answer the central question: ?” We do so by utilizing multiple indicators of droughts and available wheat yield reports. We find a clear distinction in the probability of drought (defined as being in the lower tercile)

Climate strongly influences fire activity, and the alignment of multiple weather and climate extremes, such as co-occurrence of hot and dry, leads to more severe fires. Recognizing the knowledge gap on the combination of compound drought–heatwave events and fire activities, we applied an event coincidence analysis to investigate their spatiotemporal dependence in China during 2003–2020 based on remote

This study suggests a methodology for probabilistic forecasts of the extreme heat events in East Asia based on an operational global ensemble prediction used by the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA). It focuses on the medium range of up to 11 days, providing probabilities of heatwave and tropical night occurrence each day. Forecast validation in the summer from 2016 to 2021 shows that the deterministic

Angola is exceptionally vulnerable to climate change, and sectors such as health, agricultural, water resources and ecosystems may endure severe impacts. Here, an extensive analysis of the signal of climate change on temperature, precipitation, extremes and compound events, for the end of the 21st century, is presented. The analysis is based on a CORDEX-Africa multi-model ensemble at 0.44° resolution

Dryland ecosystems are highly vulnerable to extreme droughts under climate change. Yet, response of vegetation productivity across global drylands to changes in drought stress in a warming climate remains obscure. Here, we investigated future changes in drought stress, characterized by low soil moisture (SM) and high vapor pressure deficit (VPD), under severe drought conditions and its impact on gross

We document 1394 extreme precipitation events (EPEs) over Aotearoa New Zealand’s (ANZ) Regional Councils between March 1996 and December 2021. The characteristics of EPEs are documented using a novel spatio-temporal framework that diagnoses the peak intensity, duration, and accumulation of the EPE using the ERA-5 and MERRA-2 reanalysis products. Properties of EPEs were evaluated according to region

Coastal flood damage is primarily the result of extreme sea levels. Climate change is expected to drive an increase in these extremes. While proper estimation of changes in storm surges is essential to estimate changes in extreme sea levels, there remains low confidence in future trends of surge contribution to extreme sea levels. Alerting local populations of imminent extreme sea levels is also critical

Freezing rain is one of the most damaging weather phenomena in winter or early spring in many parts of the world, affecting traffic, power lines and agriculture. Thus, reliable and computationally efficient prediction of its occurrence is urgently needed in weather forecast operations. However, there are different thermodynamic processes that can lead to freezing rain, resulting in unsatisfactory forecasting

This study developed a novel approach that integrated climate model selection and multi-model ensemble (MME) construction to effectively represent model uncertainties and, consequently, improve consistency in the evaluation of changes to extreme rainfall in different scenarios. Our focus was to combine 10 regional climate model (RCM) simulations, forced by two global climate models (GCM), especially

Wave setup is a physical process that induces a temporal increase of the mean water level due to wave dissipation by bottom friction and breaking in the surf zone, extending over tens to hundreds of meters in the cross-shore direction. Wave setup contribution to coastal sea level solely induced by wind and atmospheric effects can increase by more than 100% under extreme events and conditions favoring

The Simplified Wet Bulb Globe Temperature (sWBGT) is widely used in heat stress assessments for climate-change studies, but its limitations have not been thoroughly explored. Building on recent critiques of sWBGT's use for current climate on global scale, this study examines sWBGT's biases using dynamically-downscaled sub-daily climate projections under multiple future emission scenarios. The analysis

Extreme rainfall events (ERE) during the summer monsoon season have been occurring over most parts of India resulting in flooding and immense socio-economic loss. These extremes are becoming a frequent norm in the hilly and mountainous regions of the country such as Assam. Assam received one of the most historical EREs from 14–June 17, 2022. The present study analyses the performance of a suite of

We analyzed the possible effects of recent sea surface temperature (SST) warming on the extraordinary East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) precipitation in 2020 summer. The dynamic and thermodynamic impacts of SST are examined by conducting regional climate model experiments with observed SST and cold SST where the 22-year SST trend is removed. In the presence of warm SST, precipitation increases in low

Tornadoes are a co-occurring extreme that can be produced by landfalling tropical cyclones (TCs). These tornadoes can exacerbate the loss of life and property damage caused by the TC from which they were spawned. It is uncertain how the severe weather environments of landfalling TCs may change in a future climate and how this could impact tornado activity from TCs. In this study, we investigated four

The study employed high-resolution atmospheric general circulation models (AGCM) to simulate tropical cyclones (TCs) and evaluated two TC genesis potential indices in reflecting projected TC changes in the western North Pacific (WNP) under a warming scenario. Both indices accurately represented the seasonal variation of TC genesis frequency (TCGF) and its spatial distribution in historical simulations