Anthropogenic forcing and subtropical anticyclonic drivers of the August 2022 heatwave in China,Weather and Climate Extremes

当前位置： X-MOL 学术 › Weather Clim. Extrem. › 论文详情

Our official English website, www.x-mol.net, welcomes your feedback! (Note: you will need to create a separate account there.)

Anthropogenic forcing and subtropical anticyclonic drivers of the August 2022 heatwave in China
Weather and Climate Extremes ( IF 6.1 ) Pub Date : 2024-07-06 , DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2024.100707
Wenjun Liang , Chenhao Li , Yifan Wu , Meng Zou , Xian Zhu , Wenjie Dong , John C. Moore , Fei Liu , Shaobo Qiao , Tianyun Dong , Kaixi Wang , Dong Chen , Qi Ran

The Yangtze River basin experienced record-breaking high temperatures in July–August 2022, leading the China Meteorological Administration to issue its first ever “red heat warning”. We use simulations from the Detection and Attribution Model Intercomparison Project (DAMIP) of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) to investigate the role of anthropogenic drivers in this extreme event. We have demonstrated that the strong Western Pacific Subtropical High (WPSH), attributed to internal variability, serves as the clear proximate driver for such extreme event, whether in the factual world or in the counterfactual world. When considering similar circulation patterns in 2022, the results show that anthropogenic forcing has contributed to the 2022-like heatwave by a factor about 7 compared to natural forcing under the present climate of the past 30 years. Specifically, the anthropogenic greenhouse gases made the event about 10 times more likely, while anthropogenic aerosols had negative effect. The results were similar but differed in exact contribution values when specific circulation regimes of 2022 were not considered. In general, global warming caused by anthropogenic activities has made extreme summer heatwaves far more frequent, especially in recent decades.

更新日期：2024-07-06

点击分享查看原文

点击收藏

公开下载

阅读更多本刊新发论文