High-resolution climate change projections are required to evaluate local and regional climate change impacts. We used CCAM (Conformal Cubic Atmospheric Model) to dynamically downscale CMIP6 GCMs (Global Climate Models) over Australia under three emissions scenarios, producing a set of 60 simulations at a 10 km resolution. Previous work has evaluated the performance of the downscaled models in the historical period. Here, we evaluate the impact of end-of-century climate change in the downscaled CMIP6-CCAM models for mean and extreme climate under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP126, 245 and 370). We find the changes in mean climate are in general similar in the host CMIP6 and downscaled models. For extreme temperature, we find that extreme maximum temperatures (TXx) increase by 3.4 °C, while extreme minimum temperatures (TNn) warm by 3.0 °C. Extreme precipitation generally increases in summer and decreases in winter; however, there is a large amount of inter-model variation in the location and magnitude of change. Consecutive dry days also decrease in most areas in Austral summer and increase in Austral winter. Heatwaves become more frequent and hotter by the end of the century. These results suggest a hotter, wetter Austral summer, with longer, more frequent and more intense heatwaves, and a hotter and drier Austral winter in most areas. This dataset provides useful new high-resolution information on how climate change is likely to impact Australia, which will be a valuable resource to underpin local adaptation responses to future impacts.

中文翻译：

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澳大利亚缩小的高分辨率 CMIP6 模拟预测的平均气候和极端事件的变化


需要高分辨率的气候变化预测来评估当地和区域气候变化的影响。我们使用 CCAM（共形立方大气模型）在三种排放情景下动态缩小澳大利亚上空的 CMIP6 GCM（全球气候模型），生成了一组 60 个分辨率为 10 公里的模拟。以前的工作评估了缩小模型在历史时期的性能。在这里，我们在三个共享社会经济途径（SSP126、245 和 370）下评估了本世纪末气候变化在缩小的平均和极端气候 CMIP6-CCAM 模型中的影响。我们发现主机 CMIP6 和缩小模式中平均气候的变化通常相似。对于极端温度，我们发现极端最高温度 （TXx） 升高了 3.4 °C，而极端最低温度 （TNn） 升高了 3.0 °C。 极端降水通常在夏季增加，冬季减少;然而，在变化的位置和幅度方面存在大量的模型间变化。南方夏季大部分地区的连续干旱天数也减少，南方冬季增加。到本世纪末，热浪变得更加频繁和炎热。这些结果表明，南方夏季更热、更潮湿，热浪更长、更频繁、更强烈，南方大部分地区的冬季更热、更干燥。该数据集提供了有关气候变化可能如何影响澳大利亚的有用新高分辨率信息，这将是支持当地适应应对未来影响的宝贵资源。