Drawing from a multiyear series of interviews with sea level rise assessors during the development of IPCC’s Working Group I volume of the Sixth Assessment Report—the first time access had been granted to researchers to observe the IPCC process—this article analyzes the social and epistemic challenges and tools (both technical and social) involved in assessing complex, uncertain science questions.

Globally, researchers and policymakers are calling for transformative climate adaptation (TCA) to fundamentally change the attributes of social, economic, and ecological systems to deal with climate risks. However, attempts to conceptualize, assess, and implement TCA are limited and often result in vague and diffuse meanings, hindering transformative action. This study synthesizes existing literature

Formal trust is an important formal institution that may significantly impact the environment. This study uses regional distrust environment as a reverse proxy variable for formal trust and studies the impact of formal trust on corporate sulfur dioxide emissions. This study finds that the environment of distrust significantly increases the sulfur dioxide emission levels of enterprises, which means

Climate change mitigation policies around the world are increasingly formulated as ‘green deals’ characterized by comprehensive packages of (‘green’) economic and societal reforms intended to bring about a just and inclusive transition to a low-carbon economy. This paper takes as its starting point what we see as a fundamental tension underlying the logic of these policies: despite making ambitious

Small island developing States (SIDS) are among the first and the most severely impacted by climate change and thus have been designated as a priority for adaptation finance. But despite their urgent need and prima facie case for climate justice, SIDS have been proportionally less successful than other vulnerable country groups in accessing climate funding via the Green Climate Fund (GCF). This research

The energy system transition is widely regarded as an important strategy to achieve carbon reduction and is aligned with China's commitment to reach peak carbon emissions by 2030. Unfortunately, most modelling approaches in the existing literature do not pay sufficient attention to inter-sectoral dynamics. By using a model-coupling approach, this paper aims to study inter-sectoral energy consumption

South America is a crucial developing region under significant pressure to reduce emissions and achieve carbon neutrality. This study fills a vital gap by comprehensively analysing the continent’s carbon emissions from both production and consumption perspectives. Utilizing the most up-to-date global Multi-Regional Input-Output (MRIO) models, we examine the emissions embodied in the internal and external

Investments in wildfire management are increasing globally; however, frequent and intense fires continue to threaten humans and natural systems. Moreover, comprehensive assessments of fire damage and cost are lacking. Current fire risk is considered moderate compared to that under global warming of 1.5 °C. Several works link rising fire risk to the fire exclusion paradigm, land use, and climate change

Brazil’s agricultural, livestock, and forestry production is essential, feeding more than 10% of the global population. However, climate change and extremes affect quality and production, challenging the Sustainable Development Goals of eradicating hunger and poverty. Extreme weather events generate economic and social costs, driving the use of adaptation strategies, with rural insurance being one

While a considerable amount of research has been conducted on the cognitive effects of climate change, relatively less attention has been given to gender disparities in these effects. This paper utilizes nationally representative data from China to explore how climate change influences cognitive performance across genders. Our findings suggest that women demonstrate a notably stronger capacity to adapt

To confront current sustainability challenges, the European Commission aims to transition towards plant-based diets as well as shorter, regionalized value chains. Legume-based meat and dairy alternatives (LBAs) are seen as an important tool in the food system transition, replacing protein from animals with high-protein plant-based sources. However, regionalized LBA value chains require the co-occurrence

Measuring the contribution of urban nature-based solutions (NbS) to climate change adaptation is an essential, though complex, step towards understanding who benefits from them, as well as when, where, how and why. However, urban NbS are also framed as being able to meet multiple objectives relating to biodiversity conservation as well as associated social challenges. The complexity of addressing multiple

Ecosystem degradation can have substantial social and economic costs, which may vary across groups in society. In this paper, we leverage variation from the introduction of the emerald ash borer beetle to explore how invasive species-induced declines in environmental quality impact education outcomes in a metropolitan setting. Exploiting the idiosyncratic and staggered spread of the ash borer throughout

Transformative climate change adaptation planning that addresses marginalized populations is increasingly critical for the globe’s most vulnerable countries. In 2021, Peru became the first country in Latin America to incorporate both gender and an Indigenous peoples’ platform (PPICC) into its national climate change adaptation plan. Peru has simultaneously increased its mining production of critical

Circular migration, defined as migration where migrants return to their original home area, has become an increasingly important component of rural livelihoods and can significantly impact the risk management strategies of smallholder agricultural households in the face of climate change. To unpack the associations between climate change, migration decisions, and agricultural outcomes for smallholder

This paper investigates the factors that led to the national adoption of the European Green Deal (EGD) in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) and shows how politicization affects national governments’ positions and commitments. Using a comparative analysis of Hungary, Poland, and Romania, our study shows that while issues of public opinion ideological leaning, fossil fuel dependency, economic context

Understanding what conditions promote or hinder energy affordability in energy transitions is crucial for coal and carbon-intensive regions (CCIRs) dealing with the trade-off between phasing out fossil fuels and deepening social inequalities. While previous studies have included household and national-level conditions, this paper addresses the research gap covering regional-level conditions by drawing

Livelihood changes associated with forced displacement caused by large dams occur in a context of socio-environmental transformation, raising the question on how resettled people cope with and adapt while experiencing environmental change. This article analyses how environmental change is connected to householdś livelihood in communities displaced by the Madeira River hydroelectric dams, Santo Antônio

Global environmental change impacts human security in both Vanuatu and Guam – but in very different ways. This paper studies both regions through a thematic analysis of problem-centered expert interviews with local stakeholders. It provides a comprehensive assessment of pathways from environmental change to human insecurity in both regions. Climate change impacts are omnipresent in Vanuatu and coproduced

Despite the abundance of real world events and scientific information linking the worsening extreme weather to climate change, public attitudes toward climate issues in the United States remain highly divided along partisan lines. We compare the effect of different stimuli linking extreme weather events to climate change – personal experiences and scientific information – in reducing the partisan gap

Global warming had long been discussed as an abstract matter of physics and chemistry. Only in the 1990s did the more tangible costs caused by natural catastrophes come into focus. The key corporate actors to advance this damage and risk perspective on climate change and corroborate it with data – reinsurance companies – have largely been overlooked in the literature. Drawing on expert interviews,

The tipping point concept, widely recognized within the natural sciences, is experiencing a resurgence in social studies. The emerging field sees growing insights about characteristics and mechanisms of social system tipping; however, much disagreement remains. This includes whether social tipping points can be anticipated – determining its political relevance, as anticipation is essential for actions

This study investigates the role of climate change contrarians in the defeat of the American Clean Energy and Security Act in 2010, a pivotal moment in U.S. climate policy that marked the end of extensive efforts to enact cap-and-trade climate legislation in the United States. Our research objectives are twofold: firstly, to determine the extent to which climate contrarians gained access to testify

Carbon farming is a set of land management practices that abate carbon emissions through carbon sequestration and emissions avoidance. The Australian Carbon Credit Unit scheme enables landholders to receive carbon credits for implementing carbon farming projects that use approved methods to reduce emissions relative to baseline practice. The most widely adopted methodology under this scheme is human

The Three Horizons for the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) is a novel participatory approach to co-create future sustainable scenarios for supporting the implementation of the United Nations 2030 Agenda. Whereas the approach has been applied to inform the design of global-scale sustainability scenarios based on regional perspectives, it has not been implemented to explore how local and regional

Green financial sector initiatives, including green macroprudential policies, green monetary policies, and green public co-funding, could play an important role in the low-carbon transition by supporting countries in the implementation of their climate objectives. This paper analyzes how green financial sector initiatives could enable the scaling up of green investments while avoiding unintended effects

Natural floating objects (NLOGs) are a major component of the habitat of pelagic species. Since the 1990s, the number of floating objects in the open ocean has increased greatly as a result of the introduction of drifting fish aggregating devices (DFADs) by the industrial tropical tuna purse seine vessels. These changes, and their potential impacts on the species that associate with floating objects

Projecting migration is challenging, due to the context-specific and discontinuous relations between migration and the socioeconomic and environmental conditions that drive this process. Here, we investigate the usefulness of Machine Learning (ML) Random Forest (RF) models to develop three net migration scenarios in South Asia by 2050 based on historical patterns (2001–2019). The model for the direction

This paper analyses the unique hybrid governance of Brazil’s Amazon Soy Moratorium (ASM) in regulating soybean production in the Amazon, where private actors have created a state-like ban on commodity production to reduce deforestation that goes beyond national law. Despite existing research regarding impact assessment, the study aims to fill knowledge gaps in explaining the ASM’s alliance-building

The empirical study aims to examine how residents perceive and respond to air pollution in their daily lives, whether they use mobility as an adaptation strategy to avoid or mitigate their exposure, and how socioeconomic and demographic factors modify such responses in mobility. To this end, this study conducts an analysis in the city of Chengdu using a mixed-method approach combining surveys and large-scale

Cases of climate maladaptation are increasingly documented. Its identification and redressal has become a priority for researchers and policymakers concerned with climate vulnerability reduction. The ability to address climate maladaptation hinges on being open to its diverse causes, manifestations, and impacts. This study argues that climate maladaptation analyses are dominated by an “interactional

Water security remains a critical global development challenge, compounded by persistent public funding shortfalls. Society urgently needs to identify opportunities for innovative private sector engagement in water security solutions. To identify feasible and impactful solutions, quantitative tools are needed to delineate complex environmental and socioeconomic water challenges and prioritize private

As planned relocation becomes an increasingly utilized climate adaptation strategy, guidance for effective practice consistently emphasizes the importance of “community” engagement throughout relocation planning, decision-making, and implementation. Yet “community” is not a monolith operating in consensus, where engagement is achieved simply through the interaction of internal and external actors.

Adaptive pathways planning is an approach that maps the solution space over time to inform decision making under uncertainty. Since its first applications to climate change adaptation in the ’10s several studies and practical applications have used and extended the approach and discussed its benefits, limits, and complexity. What have we learned from a decade of adaptive pathways studies? This paper

The Western Wildlife Corridor (WWC) in Ghana’s Northern Savannah ecological zone is a contested landscape where efforts to reverse widespread environmental degradation often conflict with local livelihood concerns and broader development objectives. Despite policy measures to devolve natural resource decision-making authority, poor environmental management, persistent socioeconomic challenges, and

Integrated assessment models that incorporate biodiversity and ecosystem services could be an important tool for improving our understanding of interconnected social-economic-ecological systems, and for analyzing how policy alternatives can shift future trajectories towards more sustainable development. Despite recent scientific and technological advances, key gaps remain in the scientific community’s

Current trends in air transport are inconsistent with international climate goals. Without substantial changes from business-as-usual travel demand, neither new technologies nor alternative fuels will reduce emissions at the required rate. Air transport demand is highly skewed towards a small share of frequent flyers in all aviation users. While the unsustainability of aviation is well-recognised in

The energy poverty literature has identified numerous factors that influence the phenomenon. However, only a limited number of studies examine the role of environmental consciousness, especially in the case of cooking fuel. This variable might be essential due to the close association of energy poverty with environmental quality to aid the overall environmental sustainability discourse. This study

Much of England’s coastline is underprepared for adapting to long-term coastal change, with many coastal areas moving from ‘hold the line’ to managed realignment as this century progresses. This paper offers a unique case study of a frontage experiencing this transition. It explores the perspectives of Bacton and Walcott residents and coastal policymakers on managing the risk of coastal change for

The urgent need to address climate change requires widespread behavioural changes and structural reforms. However, the adoption of low-carbon practices is limited by individual, social and structural constraints. Carbon capability (CC) is an interdisciplinary, integrative framework which bridges the gap between individual-level behaviours and systemic change. This article develops a new theoretical

In many places around the world, the continuing expansion of agricultural land into forested areas is a context which urgently needs transformative change towards more sustainable pathways. Defining and implementing such transformations requires critical reflection to avoid reproducing business-as-usual practices. Transformative alternatives need to be capable of challenging detrimental power structures

In 2016, negotiations of the Convention on Biological Diversity on access and benefit-sharing policies were shaken up by the emergence of digital sequence information (DSI) as policy issue. Open access to DSI on genetic resources in genetic databases is standard practice in data-driven biological research, but such access was argued to bypass access and benefit-sharing policies of the Convention. As

There is an increasing expectation for more scientists to engage with industry, government, and communities to solve climate change. A group for whom these calls are now prevalent are marine (natural and social) scientists working on environmental change, including climate change. Yet, there is limited empirical evidence of what drives them to embrace or avoid engaging distinct publics, including policymakers

Diverse disciplines are contributing to the growing body of evidence exploring the interaction between climate adaptation and justice and/or equity. As a result, the literature lacks consistency in how the terms equity and justice are applied and defined, challenging efforts to synthesize evidence and translate it into policy and practice. This scoping review aims to investigate the diversity of ways

Despite global recognition of the need to protect and preserve Indigenous knowledge and values in the context of land use change, the extent and significance of these values on Indigenous lands remains not well understood and poorly considered in environmental management and planning. Including Indigenous values in the System of Environmental-Economic Accounting (SEEA) may be one way to better ensure

The urgent need for transformations to sustainability has been widely established, but the seeming lack of swift and comprehensive progress have led to well-founded doubts about meeting the goals of the Paris Agreement, the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals and other related global agreements. Often vacuous and potentially misleading pointers to partial progress are not reassuring, while defeatist

Using archaeological, historical, and ethnographic analysis of Norse and Inuit toys and miniatures, this paper argues that legacies of childhood learning can create limits to climatic change adaptation and provide lessons from the past relevant today. In Medieval Greenland, Norse children played with objects that would have familiarised them with the expected norms and behaviours of farming, household

Many people are highly exposed to climate change through tourism activities. However, conventional evaluations of tourism climate suitability have consistently relied on uniform indicators. In reality, the combination of meteorological factors that tourists are sensitive to and the threshold ranges for their comfort vary across different climate zones. This study, for the first time, utilizes a dataset

Lack of property rights is associated with lower investment, development, and welfare. In the Brazilian Amazon, insecure property rights have historically led to civil conflicts and deforestation, which would be expected to provide incentives for landowners to seek formal title. In this paper, we construct a novel database of land prices in Brazil to measure the market value of formal title to land

As climate impacts intensify, local governments across the United States are developing ad-hoc policies and plans to increase their resilience to climate hazards across all sectors, but there is limited assessment of what policies currently exist in U.S. communities to adapt to climate change. In this article, we develop a novel policy inventory for adaptation policies in five U.S. counties. Using

Motivating climate action is challenging because the worst consequences of climate change are in the future, triggering a conflict between short- and long-term interests. Prior research suggests that orienting to the future facilitates pro-environmental behavior whereas orientation to the present inhibits it; however, we consider whether different temporal orientations simply make some kinds of climate

Anthropogenic climate change is already causing dangerous and widespread disruptions in global ecological and social systems and affects the lives of billions of people around the world. Even with scaled-up risk management and adaptation, the limits of adaptation will often be reached. Currently, very little is known about the degree to which societies can adapt to climate change, and where and when

As emerging methods for carbon removal and controversial proposals around solar radiation modification are gaining traction in climate assessments and policy debates, a better understanding of how the public perceives these approaches is needed. Relying on qualitative data from 44 focus groups (n = 323 respondents), triangulated with a survey conducted in 22 countries (n = over 22 000 participants)

Activists, scholars, and policymakers worldwide have increasingly recognised the intrinsic linkages between energy transitions and justice issues. However, little research exists on how groups affected by renewable energy siting interpret and mobilise justice narratives to legitimise their actions and question development plans. Building on the notion of 'framing' in social movement theory, this study

Rapid expansion and upgrading of wastewater treatment facilities globally, driven by stricter wastewater policies, significantly contribute to carbon emissions. China has contributed 30 % of carbon emissions in the world, 1 % of which comes from wastewater treatment, necessitating more understanding of the impact of policies, especially the stringent “10-Point Water Plan” policy. From a micro perspective

To explore the health effect of anomalous precipitation on deaths among children younger than 5 years (under-5 deaths) in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Based on a sample of 1.6 million children from 56 LMICs, we conducted a sibling-matched Cox regression model to examine the association between under-5 deaths and anomalous precipitation in annual average. We established a nonlinear exposure–response

Urgent action to tackle the climate crisis will only be possible with significant public support for radical lifestyle change. Arguments that seek to delay climate action and justify inadequate mitigation efforts, often termed ‘discourses of delay’, are widespread within political and media debate on climate change. Here we report the results of novel public deliberation and visioning workshops, conducted

A spatially explicit (0.5 degree resolution) analysis is presented of the impact of human lifestyle, diet and nutrient use efficiency in food production and wastewater treatment on exceedance of threshold concentrations for nitrate in groundwater, and total N and total P concentrations in surface water, as well as criteria for their ratio. This analysis starts from the middle-of-the-road (SSP2) and