Brazil’s agricultural, livestock, and forestry production is essential, feeding more than 10% of the global population. However, climate change and extremes affect quality and production, challenging the Sustainable Development Goals of eradicating hunger and poverty. Extreme weather events generate economic and social costs, driving the use of adaptation strategies, with rural insurance being one of the main instruments to manage these risks. This study analyzes the impact of extreme weather events on rural insurance contracting in Brazil, using daily precipitation and temperature data to calculate extreme weather indices and perform panel regressions. The analysis of Minimum Comparable Areas (MCAs) between 2006 and 2016 showed that events such as “Frost” and “Hot Days” significantly increased insurance contracting, especially in the South and Central-West regions. The results highlight the importance of extreme variables and the need to consider regional differences and insurance alternatives. Despite the importance of insurance, increasing financial unviability suggests the need for additional strategies, such as crop diversification, community solidarity, and conservation of agricultural practices.

中文翻译：

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农业韧性：极端天气事件对巴西农村保险采用率的影响


巴西的农业、畜牧业和林业生产至关重要，养活了全球 10% 以上的人口。然而，气候变化和极端天气影响质量和生产，对消除饥饿和贫困的可持续发展目标构成挑战。极端天气事件会产生经济和社会成本，推动适应策略的使用，而农村保险是管理这些风险的主要工具之一。本研究分析了极端天气事件对巴西农村保险合同的影响，使用每日降水和温度数据计算极端天气指数并执行面板回归。对 2006 年至 2016 年间最小可比区域 （MCA） 的分析表明，“霜冻”和“炎热天气”等事件显著增加了保险合同，尤其是在南部和中西部地区。结果突出了极端变量的重要性以及考虑区域差异和保险替代方案的必要性。尽管保险很重要，但日益增长的财务不可行性表明需要额外的策略，例如作物多样化、社区团结和保护农业实践。