Anthropogenic climate change is already causing dangerous and widespread disruptions in global ecological and social systems and affects the lives of billions of people around the world. Even with scaled-up risk management and adaptation, the limits of adaptation will often be reached. Currently, very little is known about the degree to which societies can adapt to climate change, and where and when limits to adaptation will be reached. In this paper, we conceptualize adaptation limits through a novel methodological framework, assess adaptation limits along adaptation pathways, and propose a research strategy for empirical and model-based limits assessments based on biophysical and socio-economic data. Assessing limits is central to national and international adaptation policymaking. More efficient adaptation can also help climate mitigation efforts.

中文翻译：

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需要一个新的动态框架来评估适应限制


人为气候变化已经对全球生态和社会系统造成危险和广泛的破坏，并影响全世界数十亿人的生活。即使扩大了风险管理和适应，也常常会达到适应的极限。目前，人们对社会能够适应气候变化的程度以及何时何地达到适应极限知之甚少。在本文中，我们通过一种新颖的方法框架概念化适应极限，评估适应路径上的适应极限，并提出基于生物物理和社会经济数据的实证和基于模型的极限评估的研究策略。评估限制对于国家和国际适应政策制定至关重要。更有效的适应也有助于缓解气候变化的努力。