Integrated assessment models that incorporate biodiversity and ecosystem services could be an important tool for improving our understanding of interconnected social-economic-ecological systems, and for analyzing how policy alternatives can shift future trajectories towards more sustainable development. Despite recent scientific and technological advances, key gaps remain in the scientific community’s ability to deliver information to decision-makers at the pace and scale needed to address sustainability challenges. We identify five research frontiers for integrated social-economic-ecological modeling (primarily focused on terrestrial systems) to incorporate biodiversity and ecosystem services: 1) downscaling impacts of direct and indirect drivers on ecosystems; 2) incorporating feedbacks in ecosystems; 3) linking ecological impacts to human well-being, 4) disaggregating outcomes for distributional equity considerations, and 5) incorporating dynamic feedbacks of ecosystem services on the social-economic system. We discuss progress and challenges along each of these five frontiers and the science-policy linkages needed to move new research and information into action.

中文翻译：

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自然在人类福祉中的作用的综合建模：研究议程


纳入生物多样性和生态系统服务的综合评估模型可以成为提高我们对相互关联的社会经济生态系统的理解以及分析政策替代方案如何将未来轨迹转向更可持续发展的重要工具。尽管最近科学技术取得了进步，但科学界在以应对可持续发展挑战所需的速度和规模向决策者提供信息的能力方面仍然存在重大差距。我们确定了综合社会经济生态模型（主要关注陆地系统）的五个研究前沿，以纳入生物多样性和生态系统服务：1）缩小直接和间接驱动因素对生态系统的影响； 2）将反馈纳入生态系统； 3）将生态影响与人类福祉联系起来，4）出于分配公平考虑而分类结果，以及5）纳入生态系统服务对社会经济系统的动态反馈。我们讨论这五个前沿领域的进展和挑战，以及将新研究和信息付诸行动所需的科学与政策联系。