Green financial sector initiatives, including green macroprudential policies, green monetary policies, and green public co-funding, could play an important role in the low-carbon transition by supporting countries in the implementation of their climate objectives. This paper analyzes how green financial sector initiatives could enable the scaling up of green investments while avoiding unintended effects on macroeconomic and financial stability. For each green financial sector initiative, the paper identifies its entry point in the economy, the transmission channels to banks’ investment decisions in terms of availability and cost of capital for high- and low-carbon goods, and the resulting impacts on output and greenhouse gas emissions. Building on these insights, the paper develops a theory of change about the role of green financial sector initiatives for climate mitigation, identifying the criteria for applicability and conditions to maximize their impact. It discusses specifically the application of the theory of change to the low-carbon transition in coal and carbon intensive regions in the context of the European net zero climate objective.

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绿色金融部门举措在低碳转型中的作用：变革理论


绿色金融部门举措，包括绿色宏观审慎政策、绿色货币政策和绿色公共共同融资，可以通过支持各国实施其气候目标，在低碳转型中发挥重要作用。本文分析了绿色金融部门举措如何能够扩大绿色投资，同时避免对宏观经济和金融稳定产生意外影响。对于每项绿色金融部门举措，本文都确定了其经济切入点、银行投资决策在高碳和低碳商品资本的可用性和成本方面的传导渠道，以及由此对产出和温室气体产生的影响气体排放。基于这些见解，本文提出了关于绿色金融部门举措在减缓气候变化方面的作用的变革理论，确定了适用性标准和条件，以最大限度地发挥其影响。它具体讨论了在欧洲净零气候目标背景下变革理论在煤炭和碳密集地区低碳转型中的应用。