Adaptive pathways planning is an approach that maps the solution space over time to inform decision making under uncertainty. Since its first applications to climate change adaptation in the ’10s several studies and practical applications have used and extended the approach and discussed its benefits, limits, and complexity. What have we learned from a decade of adaptive pathways studies? This paper elaborates lessons learned on the use, value and weaknesses of adaptive pathways approaches for decision making using a set of guiding questions related to the decision context, the methods used, and contributions to decision making. Based on our experience and literature review, we find that: a) adaptive pathways analyses have been applied widely and are moving from theory to practice; b) an adaptive pathways analysis can be tailored and typically follows a staged approach; c) methods include narratives, impact models, and stakeholder participation tools; d) the complexity of adaptive pathways as a result of multiple actors, values, hazards, and actions at various scales for different purposes is a challenge, and this is increasingly considered through various extensions and combinations with other approaches. Ways forward to address weaknesses and current challenges include: accounting for coevolution between multiple actors across different scales (e.g., through interactive and multilevel pathways) and combining an adaptive pathways analysis with visioning and backcasting approaches for transformative adaptation and operationalizing climate resilient development pathways. To enable further applications in practice, it is important that experiences are shared and governance issues (e.g. long-term planning and funding) addressed.

中文翻译：

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十年气候适应适应性途径研究的经验教训


自适应路径规划是一种随着时间的推移绘制解决方案空间的方法，以便在不确定的情况下为决策提供信息。自上世纪 10 年代首次应用于气候变化适应以来，多项研究和实际应用已经使用和扩展了该方法，并讨论了其好处、局限性和复杂性。我们从十年的适应性途径研究中学到了什么？本文通过一系列与决策背景、所使用的方法和对决策的贡献相关的指导性问题，阐述了决策自适应路径方法的使用、价值和弱点方面的经验教训。根据我们的经验和文献综述，我们发现：a）适应性路径分析已得到广泛应用，并正在从理论走向实践； b) 适应性路径分析可以定制，并且通常遵循分阶段方法； c) 方法包括叙述、影响模型和利益相关者参与工具； d) 由于多个参与者、价值观、危险和针对不同目的的不同规模的行动，适应性路径的复杂性是一个挑战，人们越来越多地通过各种扩展和与其他方法的组合来考虑这一点。解决弱点和当前挑战的方法包括：考虑不同规模的多个参与者之间的共同进化（例如，通过互动和多层次路径），并将适应性路径分析与愿景和回溯方法相结合，以实现变革性适应和实施气候弹性发展路径。为了在实践中进一步应用，分享经验并解决治理问题（例如长期规划和资金）非常重要。