Circular migration, defined as migration where migrants return to their original home area, has become an increasingly important component of rural livelihoods and can significantly impact the risk management strategies of smallholder agricultural households in the face of climate change. To unpack the associations between climate change, migration decisions, and agricultural outcomes for smallholder agricultural households, we use an embedded mixed methods approach that uses quantitative data from a structured household survey from over 2,000 rural households in Nepal, India, and Bangladesh, along with qualitative data from interviews and focus group discussions. We use these data to identify the influence of socio-economic, climate, and weather factors on long (≥12 months) and short-term (<12 months) migration decisions and the impacts of migration on risk management strategies in agriculture. Our research shows that the drivers and effects of migration differ based on migration characteristics, including the length of time a family member migrates and whether the destination is domestic or international. We find that households with limited resources, such as constrained irrigation access, use short-term migration to cope with weather variability, whereas long-term migration is generally undertaken by wealthier households motivated to improve long-term economic outcomes. Considering the impacts of migration on risk management, we find that short-term migration of household members results in increased investment in agriculture, such as increasing inputs and adopting new varieties. In contrast, long-term and international migration is associated with disinvestments in agriculture, such as reduced cropped area and inputs. Our results highlight the importance of migration in shaping agricultural management practices amidst the challenges of climate change.

中文翻译：

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农村循环迁移在塑造印度、尼泊尔和孟加拉国小农户天气风险管理中的作用


循环迁移，定义为迁移者返回原籍地的迁移，已成为农村生计中越来越重要的组成部分，并且可以在气候变化面前对小农户的风险管理策略产生重大影响。为了揭示气候变化、移民决策和小农农业家庭农业成果之间的关联，我们使用了一种嵌入式混合方法，该方法使用来自尼泊尔、印度和孟加拉国 2,000 多个农村家庭的结构化家庭调查的定量数据，以及来自访谈和焦点小组讨论的定性数据。我们使用这些数据来确定社会经济、气候和天气因素对长期 （≥12 个月） 和短期 （<12 个月） 迁移决策的影响，以及迁移对农业风险管理策略的影响。我们的研究表明，移民的驱动因素和影响因移民特征而异，包括家庭成员移民的时间长短以及目的地是国内还是国际。我们发现，资源有限（例如灌溉条件有限）的家庭使用短期迁移来应对天气变化，而长期迁移通常由较富裕的家庭进行，以改善长期经济成果。考虑到迁移对风险管理的影响，我们发现家庭成员的短期迁移会导致对农业的投资增加，例如增加投入和采用新品种。相比之下，长期和国际移民与农业投资的减少有关，例如种植面积和投入减少。 我们的结果强调了移民在气候变化挑战中塑造农业管理实践的重要性。