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Lessons from the pandemic: Gender inequality in childcare and the emergence of a gender mental health gap among parents in Germany (by Nicole Hiekel, Mine Kühn) Demographic Research (IF 2.1) Pub Date : 2024-07-18 Nicole Hiekel, Mine Kühn
Background: The gender gap in mental health that emerged in Germany during the pandemic grew disproportionally among partnered parents. The question arises as to why mothers – compared to fathers – experienced greater declines in mental health when guiding their families through the pandemic. Objective: This study investigates how changes in childcare arrangements affected parental mental health during
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Climate change and fertility desires: An experimental study among university students in Belgium and Italy (by Sara Bisi, Nadia Sturm, Jan Van Bavel) Demographic Research (IF 2.1) Pub Date : 2024-07-16 Sara Bisi, Nadia Sturm, Jan Van Bavel
Background: As more people recognise the challenges of climate change, an increasing number are trying to reduce their ecological footprint. However, it remains uncertain whether this extends to decisions about having children. Despite public debate, scholarly research remains scarce. Objective: Our aim is to explore whether and how vignettes about climate change impact short-term fertility desires
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Developing and implementing the UN's probabilistic population projections as a milestone for Bayesian demography: An interview with Adrian Raftery (by Monica Alexander, Adrian E. Raftery) Demographic Research (IF 2.1) Pub Date : 2024-07-01 Monica Alexander, Adrian E. Raftery
Background: Population projections for all countries are published by the United Nations Population Division (UNPD) every two years as part of the World Population Prospects (WPP). Since 2015, probabilistic population projections have been published as part of WPP, produced using Bayesian statistical models. Central to this methodological change was a team of statisticians at the University of Washington
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Using Respondent-Driven Sampling to measure abortion safety in restrictive contexts: Results from Kaya (Burkina Faso) and Nairobi (Kenya) (by Lonkila Moussa Zan, Onikepe Owolabi, Adama Baguiya, Ramatou Ouedraogo, Martin Bangha, Caron Kim, Clémentine Rossier) Demographic Research (IF 2.1) Pub Date : 2024-06-25 Lonkila Moussa Zan, Onikepe Owolabi, Adama Baguiya, Ramatou Ouedraogo, Martin Bangha, Caron Kim, Clémentine Rossier
Background: Due to restrictive laws and limited service provision, globally the majority of induced abortions are unsafe and remain largely undocumented, despite their negative impact on women’s health. Objective: The purpose of this study is to test Respondent-Driven Sampling – used previously in HIV research – for abortion, and to measure abortion safety characteristics in the small town of Kaya
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Predictive utility of key family planning indicators on dynamic contraceptive outcomes: Results from longitudinal surveys in Burkina Faso, Kenya, Uganda, and Côte d'Ivoire (by Amy Tsui, Dana Sarnak, Phil Anglewicz, Fredrick Makumbi, Georges Guiella, Peter Gichangi, Rosine Mosso, Saifuddin Ahmed) Demographic Research (IF 2.1) Pub Date : 2024-06-19 Amy Tsui, Dana Sarnak, Phil Anglewicz, Fredrick Makumbi, Georges Guiella, Peter Gichangi, Rosine Mosso, Saifuddin Ahmed
Background: Many health and demographic surveys routinely collect information on women’s exposure to family planning (FP) messages, counseling on contraceptive side effects, discussions about FP with providers, contraceptive decision-making autonomy, and the desire for additional children. Several studies have shown significant associations with current contraceptive use status from these cross-sectional
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The Average Uneven Mortality index: Building on the ‘e-dagger’ measure of lifespan inequality (by Marco Bonetti, Ugofilippo Basellini, Andrea Nigri) Demographic Research (IF 2.1) Pub Date : 2024-06-12 Marco Bonetti, Ugofilippo Basellini, Andrea Nigri
Background: In recent years, lifespan inequality has become an important indicator of population health. Uncovering the statistical properties of lifespan inequality measures can provide novel insights on the study of mortality. Methods: We introduce the ‘Average Uneven Mortality’ (AUM) index, a novel mortality indicator for the study of mortality patterns and lifespan inequality. We prove some new
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Open science practices in demographic research: An appraisal (by Ugofilippo Basellini) Demographic Research (IF 2.1) Pub Date : 2024-06-07 Ugofilippo Basellini
Background: In the light of recent concerns about the reliability of scientific research, the open science movement has attracted considerable attention and interest from a variety of sources, including researchers, research institutions, the business industry, intergovernmental organizations, the media and the public. However, the current extent of openness in demographic research remains unknown
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Uncovering disability-free grandparenthood in Italy between 1998 and 2016 using gender-specific decomposition (by Margherita Moretti, Elisa Cisotto, Alessandra De Rose) Demographic Research (IF 2.1) Pub Date : 2024-06-05 Margherita Moretti, Elisa Cisotto, Alessandra De Rose
Background: Decreasing fertility rates and increasing lifespan affect the time grandparents and grandchildren co-exist. Any changes in the time and length of grandparenthood could alter the quality and the direction of intergenerational exchange. In Italy, a country in which grandparents constitute a fundamental resource for the provision of childcare and where families are the main source of support
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Two-dimensional contour decomposition: Decomposing mortality differences into initial difference and trend components by age and cause of death (by Dmitri Jdanov, Domantas Jasilionis, Vladimir Shkolnikov) Demographic Research (IF 2.1) Pub Date : 2024-06-04 Dmitri Jdanov, Domantas Jasilionis, Vladimir Shkolnikov
Background: Conventional decomposition analysis identifies contributions from differences in covariates in total between-population difference, but does not address the question of the historical roots of the differences. To close this gap, the contour decomposition method was proposed. Since 2017, when it was published, this method has been successfully applied in several papers. Nevertheless, it
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Decomposition analysis of disparities in infant mortality rates across 27 US states (by Benjamin Sosnaud) Demographic Research (IF 2.1) Pub Date : 2024-05-31 Benjamin Sosnaud
Background: Infant mortality rates (IMRs) vary dramatically across US states. A potential explanation centers on compositional differences in births from sociodemographic groups with a high risk of infant mortality. Objective: I seek to identify the contribution of key compositional factors to state-level disparities in IMRs using a series of Kitagawa–Blinder–Oaxaca decompositions. Methods: Drawing
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Which definition of migration better fits Facebook ‘expats’? A response using Mexican census data (by Tania Varona, Claudia Masferrer, Victoria Prieto Rosas, Martín Pedemonte) Demographic Research (IF 2.1) Pub Date : 2024-05-29 Tania Varona, Claudia Masferrer, Victoria Prieto Rosas, Martín Pedemonte
Background: Data from social media have emerged as an auxiliary source for real-time information on migrant populations. Facebook users’ tagged ‘expat’ data – an ‘expat’ being someone who lived in country x but now lives in country y – has been used to estimate immigrants and its quality assessment has relied on household surveys and UNDESA migration estimates. Objective: Using the census as the gold
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The effect of migration and time spent abroad on migrants’ health: A home/host country perspective (by Elisa Barbiano di Belgiojoso, Eralba Cela, Eleonora Trappolini) Demographic Research (IF 2.1) Pub Date : 2024-05-23 Elisa Barbiano di Belgiojoso, Eralba Cela, Eleonora Trappolini
Background: It is widely recognized that migrants are generally healthy upon arrival, but for several reasons, a longer length of stay abroad can have detrimental effects on health. Empirical evidence suggests the use of different comparison groups (natives in the destination country; co-nationals in the origin country) to analyse migrants’ health, depending on research aims and data availability.
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Incorporating subjective survival information in mortality and change in health status predictions: A Bayesian approach (by Apostolos Papachristos, Dimitrios Fouskakis) Demographic Research (IF 2.1) Pub Date : 2024-05-22 Apostolos Papachristos, Dimitrios Fouskakis
Background: Subjective survival probabilities incorporate individuals’ view about own future survival and they are associated with actual mortality patterns. Objective: The objective of this study is twofold. First, we apply a Bayesian methodology to incorporate the respondents’ views about future survival, and second, we investigate whether subjective survival information is useful for predicting
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Pathways and obstacles to parenthood among women in same-sex couples in Spain (by Diederik Boertien, Clara Cortina, Mariona Lozano) Demographic Research (IF 2.1) Pub Date : 2024-05-15 Diederik Boertien, Clara Cortina, Mariona Lozano
Background: Even though same-sex couples face clear obstacles to parenthood, little is known about the extent to which preferences and obstacles can explain the lower levels of parenthood among individuals in same-sex couples. Objective: The objective is to document routes into parenthood and to quantify the gap between observed and desired number of children among women in different-sex and same-sex
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Are highly educated partners really more gender egalitarian? A couple-level analysis of social class differentials in attitudes and behaviors (by Liat Raz-Yurovich, Barbara S. Okun) Demographic Research (IF 2.1) Pub Date : 2024-05-14 Liat Raz-Yurovich, Barbara S. Okun
Background: Research suggests that, following major changes in women’s roles in developed societies, gender relations within heterosexual partnerships are entering a second stage, during which men’s roles are the main source of change. Some scholars suggest that changes in gender roles occur differentially across social classes, as reflected in variation across educational groups. Objective: We ask
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Migration, daily commuting, or second residence? The role of location-specific capital and distance to workplace in regional mobility decisions (by Thomas Skora, Knut Petzold, Heiko Rüger) Demographic Research (IF 2.1) Pub Date : 2024-05-08 Thomas Skora, Knut Petzold, Heiko Rüger
Background: If a new job is located in a different region from the place of residence, individuals or households can choose between moving or commuting. However, so far mobility alternatives and their drivers remain under-researched from a comparative perspective. Objective: We investigate the determinants of the mobility choices of individuals who have taken a distant job (50 km or more), considering
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Gone and forgotten? Predictors of birth history omissions in India (by Sharan Sharma, Sonalde Desai, Debasis Barik, Om Prakash Sharma) Demographic Research (IF 2.1) Pub Date : 2024-05-07 Sharan Sharma, Sonalde Desai, Debasis Barik, Om Prakash Sharma
Background: Fertility histories are subject to measurement errors such as incorrect birth dates, incorrect birth orders, incorrect sex, and omissions. These errors can bias demographic estimates such as fertility rates and child mortality rates. Objective: We focus on births missing in fertility histories. We estimate the prevalence of such omissions and study their associated factors. Methods: We
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A new look at contraceptive prevalence plateaus in sub-Saharan Africa: A probabilistic approach (by Mark Wheldon, Vladimíra Kantorová, Joseph Molitoris, Aisha Dasgupta) Demographic Research (IF 2.1) Pub Date : 2024-05-03 Mark Wheldon, Vladimíra Kantorová, Joseph Molitoris, Aisha Dasgupta
Background: Fertility decline in sub-Saharan Africa has been slower than in other regions, with the periods of extremely slow transitions frequently described as stalled. Lack of investment in family planning programs has been proposed as a key contributing factor. However, while there is a large literature on fertility transition stalls, similar phenomena in contraceptive prevalence trends have received
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Standardized mean age at death (MADstd): Exploring its potentials as a measure of human longevity (by Markus Sauerberg, Marc Luy) Demographic Research (IF 2.1) Pub Date : 2024-04-30 Markus Sauerberg, Marc Luy
Background: Period mean age at death (MAD) is affected by a population’s age structure, and therefore by its mortality, fertility, and migration history. Period life expectancy (e_0) is also a mean age at death, for a standardized population with a stationary age structure. It depends only on current mortality rates. Here, we explore a middle ground: an age-standardized measure of period age at death
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The intergenerational transmission of migration capital: The role of family migration history and lived migration experiences (by Aude Bernard, Francisco Perales) Demographic Research (IF 2.1) Pub Date : 2024-04-26 Aude Bernard, Francisco Perales
Background: Growing empirical evidence shows that the decision to migrate is influenced by parents’ international migration experiences, with the second generation being more likely to migrate than individuals with no migration background. However, the factors underpinning this intergenerational transmission of migration behaviour remain poorly understood. Objective: This study extends existing evidence
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Mortality modelling with arrival of additional year of mortality data: Calibration and forecasting (by Kenny Kam Kuen Mok, Chong It Tan, Yanlin Shi, Jinhui Zhang) Demographic Research (IF 2.1) Pub Date : 2024-04-25 Kenny Kam Kuen Mok, Chong It Tan, Jinhui Zhang, Yanlin Shi
Background: For commonly used mortality models, the existing estimates change with the recalibration of new data. This issue is also known as the lack of the new-data-invariant property. Objective: We adapt the Lee–Carter, age-period-cohort, Renshaw–Haberman, and Li–Lee models to achieve the new-data-invariant property. The resulting fitted or forecast mortality indexes are tractable and comparable
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The influence of parental cancer on the mental health of children and young adults: Evidence from Norwegian register data on healthcare consultations (by Øystein Kravdal, Jonathan Wörn, Rannveig Hart, Bjørn-Atle Reme) Demographic Research (IF 2.1) Pub Date : 2024-04-10 Øystein Kravdal, Jonathan Wörn, Rannveig Hart, Bjørn-Atle Reme
Objective: The aim was to examine how parental cancer affects the mental health of offspring aged 6–30, and age variations in this effect. Methods: Individual fixed-effects models were estimated from register data covering the entire Norwegian population in 2010–2018. The outcome variable was whether the individual (offspring) had at least one consultation within a year with a general practitioner
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The importance of education for understanding variability of dementia onset in the United States (by Hyungmin Cha, Chi-Tsun Chiu, Mark D. Hayward, Mateo Farina) Demographic Research (IF 2.1) Pub Date : 2024-04-09 Hyungmin Cha, Mateo Farina, Chi-Tsun Chiu, Mark D. Hayward
Background: Greater levels of education are associated with lower risk of dementia, but less is known about how education is also associated with the compression of dementia incidence. Objective: We extend the literature on morbidity compression by evaluating whether increased levels of education are associated with greater dementia compression. We evaluate these patterns across race and gender groups
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The importance of correcting for health-related survey non-response when estimating health expectancies: Evidence from The HUNT Study (by Fred Schroyen) Demographic Research (IF 2.1) Pub Date : 2024-04-05 Fred Schroyen
Background: Most studies on health expectancies rely on self-reported health from surveys to measure the prevalence of disabilities or ill health in a population. At best, such studies only correct for sample selection based on a limited number of characteristics observed on the invitees. Objective: Using longitudinal data from the Trøndelag Health Study (HUNT), I investigate the extent to which adjustments
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How lifespan and life years lost equate to unity (by Annette Baudisch, Jose Manuel Aburto) Demographic Research (IF 2.1) Pub Date : 2024-04-04
Background: Life expectancy at birth (e0), life years lost at death (e†), and lifetable entropy (H) are key indicators that capture average lifespan and lifespan variation. Expressions and relationships among these summary measures form the basis to analytically derive a range of formal demographic relationships, that build on each other and together help create new insights. Even though many elegant
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Age-heterogamous partnerships: Prevalence and partner differences by marital status and gender composition (by Tony Silva, Christine Percheski) Demographic Research (IF 2.1) Pub Date : 2024-04-03 Tony Silva, Christine Percheski
Objective: We examine age heterogamy in the United States and its associations with other partnership characteristics following the nationwide legalization of same-sex marriage in 2015. Methods: We use American Community Survey data for 2017–2021 to examine age gaps in over 3.3 million couples, differentiating by couple gender composition (man-man, man-woman, woman-woman) and marital status (cohabiting
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Subnational contribution to life expectancy and life span variation changes: Evidence from the United States (by Wen Su, Alyson van Raalte, Jose Manuel Aburto, Vladimir Canudas-Romo) Demographic Research (IF 2.1) Pub Date : 2024-03-28 Wen Su, Alyson van Raalte, Jose Manuel Aburto, Vladimir Canudas-Romo
Background: The US life expectancy has been stagnating in recent decades, and along with this, the time trends of life span variation have shown stagnation and even increases with respect to historical levels. Objective: We aim to disentangle contributions from subnational levels (US regions) to national changes in life expectancy and life span variation in 2010–2019 and 2019–2020. Methods: A decomposition
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Religion and contraceptive use in Kazakhstan: A study of mediating mechanisms (by Maxim Kan) Demographic Research (IF 2.1) Pub Date : 2024-03-27 Maxim Kan
Background: Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, religiosity has resurged in post-Soviet Kazakhstan. However, since the late 1990s, research on religion’s impact on contraceptive use and differences between religious groups has been lacking. Islam and Christianity align with the major ethnicities, Kazakhs and Russians, and show variation in fertility and demographic transition stages. Objective:
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Differences in mortality before retirement: The role of living arrangements and marital status in Denmark (by Serena Vigezzi, Cosmo Strozza) Demographic Research (IF 2.1) Pub Date : 2024-03-26 Serena Vigezzi, Cosmo Strozza
Background: To make the pension system robust to population ageing, Denmark will increase the statutory retirement age in tandem with national life expectancy. By universally increasing this age, this pension indexation policy might amplify known inequalities in mortality, such as those between people in different living arrangements. Objective: We aim to quantify inequalities in mortality before retirement
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Housework time and task segregation: Revisiting gender inequality among parents in 15 European countries (by Joan García Román, Ariane Ophir) Demographic Research (IF 2.1) Pub Date : 2024-03-22 Joan García Román, Ariane Ophir
Background: Although most countries show a general convergence in men’s and women’s investment in domestic labor, women continue doing more housework, especially among couples with children. However, cross-national descriptive estimates have focused exclusively on routine tasks, thus overlooking potential change in gender inequality in non-routine tasks, as well as the total housework investment, which
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Mortality inequalities at retirement age between migrants and non-migrants in Denmark and Sweden (by Julia Callaway, Cosmo Strozza, Sven Drefahl, Eleonora Mussino, Ilya Kashnitsky) Demographic Research (IF 2.1) Pub Date : 2024-03-19 Julia Callaway, Cosmo Strozza, Sven Drefahl, Eleonora Mussino, Ilya Kashnitsky
Background: Denmark and Sweden index their statutory retirement ages to life expectancy. When lifespan increases, so does retirement age. This policy does not consider demographic heterogeneity in life expectancy, e.g., between migrants and non-migrants, posing possible issues for pension policies that index retirement age to life expectancy. Objective: To understand how mortality inequalities between
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Racial classification as a multistate process (by Jerônimo Muniz, Bernardo Lanza Queiroz, Aliya Saperstein) Demographic Research (IF 2.1) Pub Date : 2024-03-07 Jerônimo Muniz, Bernardo Lanza Queiroz, Aliya Saperstein
Background: Although the existence of racial fluidity is generally accepted in both Brazil and the United States, changes in racial classification over the life course are often not incorporated into standard demographic estimates. Objective: By taking a multistate perspective on the variability of racial classification, we can use demographic methods to ask new questions about the nature of racial
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The big decline: Lowest-low fertility in Uruguay (2016–2021) (by Wanda Cabella, Ignacio Pardo, Gabriela Pedetti, Mariana Fernández Soto) Demographic Research (IF 2.1) Pub Date : 2024-03-06
Background: In recent years, fertility rates have declined substantially in most Latin American countries. Uruguay has been at the forefront of this regional process, as the country’s total fertility rate plummeted from 2 children per woman in 2015 to 1.37 in 2021 (and continued to drop to 1.28 in 2022, according to preliminary data). Objective: We decompose fertility decline by age and birth order
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Losing the female survival advantage: Sex differentials in infant and child mortality in Pakistan (by Batool Zaidi) Demographic Research (IF 2.1) Pub Date : 2024-03-05 Batool Zaidi
Objective: To understand patterns of gender discrimination by exploring whether the risk of dying during infancy and childhood is correlated with not only the sex and birth order of the child but also the sex composition of previous siblings. Methods: Event history analysis (Cox proportional hazards model) is applied to pooled data from the 2006–2007, 2012–2013, and 2017–2018 rounds of the Pakistan
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Religious affiliation and child mortality in Ireland: A country-wide analysis based on the 1911 Census (by Lucia Pozzi, Francesco Scalone, Michail Raftakis, Liam Kennedy) Demographic Research (IF 2.1) Pub Date : 2024-03-01 Lucia Pozzi, Francesco Scalone, Michail Raftakis, Liam Kennedy
Background: Previous studies have identified a link between religious affiliation and child mortality, yet the underlying factors that contributed to this association are not fully understood. Objective: This study investigates how religious affiliation impacted child mortality in early 20th century Ireland, controlling for socioeconomic status, literacy, and place of residence at both the individual
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Cohort fertility of immigrants to Israel from the former Soviet Union (by Gustavo Shifris, Barbara S. Okun) Demographic Research (IF 2.1) Pub Date : 2024-02-29 Gustavo Shifris, Barbara S. Okun
Background: The political and economic change accompanying the collapse of the Soviet Union triggered a large wave of immigrants to Israel during the 1990s. These immigrants arrived from low-fertility contexts to a higher-fertility society. Objective: We consider how the fertility of cohorts of diverse immigrant women from a low fertility context shifts in the context of high fertility. Methods: We
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Ageing and diversity: Inequalities in longevity and health in low-mortality countries (by Cosmo Strozza, Viviana Egidi, Maria Rita Testa, Graziella Caselli) Demographic Research (IF 2.1) Pub Date : 2024-02-20 Cosmo Strozza, Viviana Egidi, Maria Rita Testa, Graziella Caselli
Background: Longevity and old age are two aspects of the same phenomenon, representing a major concern for modern societies. There is universal consensus among scholars about the need for new frameworks and measures to define older people in a more effective and dynamic way. Objective: The aim of this paper is to compute prospective old-age thresholds (POATs) in six countries characterised by disparate
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Longevity à la mode: A discretized derivative tests method for accurate estimation of the adult modal age at death (by Paola Vazquez-Castillo, Marie-Pier Bergeron-Boucher, Trifon Missov) Demographic Research (IF 2.1) Pub Date : 2024-02-14 Paola Vazquez-Castillo, Marie-Pier Bergeron-Boucher, Trifon Missov
Background: The modal age at death (or mode) is an important indicator of longevity associated with different mortality regularities. Accurate estimates of the mode are essential, but existing methods are not always able to provide them. Objective: Our objective is to develop a method to estimate the modal age at death, which is purely based on its mathematical properties. Methods: The mode maximizes
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Measuring short-term mobility patterns in North America using Facebook advertising data, with an application to adjusting COVID-19 mortality rates (by Lindsay Katz, Michael Chong, Monica Alexander) Demographic Research (IF 2.1) Pub Date : 2024-02-13
Background: Patterns in short-term population mobility are important to understand, but the data required to measure such movements are often not available from traditional sources. Objective: To investigate patterns in short-term population mobility in all states and provinces in the United States and Canada using data collected from Facebook’s advertising platform. Methods: We collected daily traveler
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Fertility decline, changes in age structure, and the potential for demographic dividends: A global analysis (by Markus Dörflinger, Elke Loichinger) Demographic Research (IF 2.1) Pub Date : 2024-02-08 Markus Dörflinger, Elke Loichinger
Background: The demographic dividend, a concept that is widely used in development cooperation, describes the economic growth potential based on shifts towards a large share of working-age population in the course of the demographic transition. However, a long-term global country-level assessment of the underlying changes in the working-age population and associated demographic factors is missing.
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War and mobility: Using Yandex web searches to characterize intentions to leave Russia after its invasion of Ukraine (by Athina Anastasiadou, Artem Volgin, Douglas R. Leasure) Demographic Research (IF 2.1) Pub Date : 2024-02-07 Athina Anastasiadou, Artem Volgin, Douglas R. Leasure
Background: Following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, many citizens left Russia due to increasing government repression, the fear of mobilization, or to escape the economic downturn. As yet, reliable statistical data on those who left are not available. Hence, much remains unknown about the characteristics and scope of this population. In the digital age, people prepare their journeys by searching
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Immigrant mortality advantage in the United States during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic (by Eugenio Paglino, Irma T. Elo) Demographic Research (IF 2.1) Pub Date : 2024-01-23 Eugenio Paglino, Irma T. Elo
Objective: To investigate the mortality impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on US-born and foreign-born populations by race and Hispanic origin in the United States in 2020. Methods: Death records from the National Center for Health Statistics and population data from CDC WONDER were used to estimate (1) age-standardized all-cause and cause-specific mortality at ages 25+, 25–64, and 65+ in 2017–2019 and
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The optimal transition to a stationary population for concentrated vitality rates (by Gustav Feichtinger, Stefan Wrzaczek) Demographic Research (IF 2.1) Pub Date : 2024-01-19 Gustav Feichtinger, Stefan Wrzaczek
Background: Several countries nowadays and in the past face a birth rates below replacement level. To what extent should the fertility of this shrinking population be increased during a given planning period such that it approaches stationarity at the end as close as possible? Both immediate adaptation to the replacement level as well as delaying it to the end of the planning period are suboptimal
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Does the fulfillment of contraceptive method preferences affect contraceptive continuation? Evidence from urban Kenya, Nigeria, and Senegal (by Carolina Cardona, David Bishai, Phil Anglewicz) Demographic Research (IF 2.1) Pub Date : 2024-01-18 Carolina Cardona, David Bishai, Phil Anglewicz
Background: Although interest in patient-centered family planning measures is growing, little is known about women’s preferences for contraceptive methods and whether these preferences influence contraceptive behaviors. Objective: We assessed whether the fulfillment of contraceptive preferences affected women’s decisions to continue, switch, or stop using contraception. Methods: Data came from a panel
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Mind the gap: Exploring urban–rural differences in US inter-county migration decisions (by Anqi Xu) Demographic Research (IF 2.1) Pub Date : 2024-01-17 Anqi Xu
Background: Labor and housing market conditions, alongside political climate, are recognized as pivotal drivers for domestic migration. However, limited research examines how urban/rural status of areas influences the interplay between these factors and migration decisions. Objective: This paper investigates urban–rural differences in the effects of employment opportunities, housing affordability,
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Leaving and returning to the parental home during COVID times in France, Italy, Germany, Spain, and the United Kingdom (by Francesca Luppi, Alessandro Rosina, Emiliano Sironi) Demographic Research (IF 2.1) Pub Date : 2024-01-16 Francesca Luppi, Alessandro Rosina, Emiliano Sironi
Background: During the first year of the COVID pandemic, many European young adults abandoned or delayed their plans to achieve housing autonomy, especially those facing vulnerable employment conditions and in contexts with limited welfare state provision for the young population. Objective: The present study contributes to this body of knowledge by examining plans and behaviours associated with leaving
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How do environmental stressors influence migration? A meta-regression analysis of environmental migration literature (by Shuai Zhou, Guangqing Chi) Demographic Research (IF 2.1) Pub Date : 2024-01-05 Shuai Zhou, Guangqing Chi
Background: The amount of literature on environmental migration is increasing. However, existing studies exhibit contradictory results. A systematic synthesis of the environment–migration relationship is much needed. Objective: This study summarizes research findings, calculates the effect sizes of environmental stressors, identifies publication bias, and investigates heterogeneous environmental effects
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Lives saved, lives lost, and under-reported COVID-19 deaths: Excess and non-excess mortality in relation to cause-specific mortality during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic in Sweden (by Eleonora Mussino, Sven Drefahl, Matthew Wallace, Sunnee Billingsley, Siddartha Aradhya, Gunnar Andersson) Demographic Research (IF 2.1) Pub Date : 2024-01-04
Background: The number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths differed across countries and across waves of the pandemic. Patterns also differed between groups within a country. Objective: We combine data on excess mortality with data on cause-of-death-specific mortality in the case of Sweden to identify which groups had excess mortality beyond what can be captured by analyses of COVID-19-specific deaths. We
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Bayesian implementation of Rogers–Castro model migration schedules: An alternative technique for parameter estimation (by Jessie Yeung, Monica Alexander, Tim Riffe) Demographic Research (IF 2.1) Pub Date : 2023-12-15 Jessie Yeung, Monica Alexander, Tim Riffe
Background: The Rogers–Castro model migration schedule is a key model for migration trends over the life course. It is applied in a wide variety of settings by demographers to examine the relationship between age and migration intensity. This model is nonlinear and can have up to 13 parameters, which can make estimation difficult. Existing techniques for parameter estimation can lead to issues such
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Programmatic access to open statistical data for population studies: The SDMX standard (by Frans Willekens) Demographic Research (IF 2.1) Pub Date : 2023-12-13 Frans Willekens
Background: The public sector publishes vast amounts of open data and metadata. APIs (application programming interfaces) are transforming the way data are collected, documented, and disseminated. The transformation is slow, however, due to differences in communication protocol, data definition, and data format. The development is of particular relevance to demography, being a data-intensive science
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The formal demography of kinship V: Kin loss, bereavement, and causes of death (by Hal Caswell, Rachel Margolis, Ashton Verdery) Demographic Research (IF 2.1) Pub Date : 2023-12-14
Background: The loss of kin by death has medical, psychological, and social effects on other members of a kinship network. Recent formal demographic models can account for deaths of kin, but not causes of those deaths. Objective: Our objective is to extend the matrix kinship model to analyze losses of any type of kin, at any age at death, due to any cause of death, at any age of a Focal individual
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Marital plans and partnership transitions among German opposite-sex couples: Couple agreement and gender differences (by Dominika Perdoch Sladká) Demographic Research (IF 2.1) Pub Date : 2023-12-12 Dominika Perdoch Sladká
Background: Research shows that marital plans influence marital behavior. However, romantic partners may differ in their marital plans, and these differences can affect relationship outcomes. Objective: The aim of this study is to investigate the relationship between agreement in short-term marital plans and partnership transitions in German opposite-sex couples and to find whether there is a gender
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Dynamics of the coefficient of variation of the age at death distribution (by Jacob Martin, Jose Manuel Aburto, Iñaki Permanyer) Demographic Research (IF 2.1) Pub Date : 2023-12-08 Jacob Martin, Jose Manuel Aburto, Iñaki Permanyer
Background: Indicators of lifespan inequality, such as the life table entropy or variance of age at death, provide a measure of inequality in the timing of death. A range of indicators of relative and absolute inequality exist, and their evolution over time and sensitivity to changes in age-specific mortality have been studied. However, the coefficient of variation, a relative indicator defined as
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Analyzing hyperstable population models (by Robert Schoen) Demographic Research (IF 2.1) Pub Date : 2023-12-07 Robert Schoen
Objective: Few methods are available for analyzing populations with changing rates. Here hyperstable models are presented and substantially extended to facilitate such analyses. Methods: Hyperstable models, where a known birth trajectory yields a consistent set of age-specific birth rates, are set out in both discrete and continuous form. Mathematical analysis is used to find new relationships between
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Reducing uncertainty in Delphi surveys: A case study on immigration to the EU (by Rhea Ravenna Sohst, Eduardo Acostamadiedo, Jasper Tjaden) Demographic Research (IF 2.1) Pub Date : 2023-12-06 Rhea Ravenna Sohst, Eduardo Acostamadiedo, Jasper Tjaden
Background: Following the rapid increase of asylum seekers arriving in the European Union in 2015/16, policymakers have invested heavily in improving their foresight and forecasting capabilities. A common method to elicit expert predictions are Delphi surveys. This approach has attracted concern in the literature, given the high uncertainty in experts’ predictions. However, there exists limited guidance
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Changes in birth seasonality in Spain: Data from 1863–1870 and 1900–2021 (by Adela Recio Alcaide, César Pérez López, Francisco Bolúmar Montrull) Demographic Research (IF 2.1) Pub Date : 2023-12-01 Adela Recio Alcaide, César Pérez López, Francisco Bolúmar Montrull
Background: Changes in birth seasonality patterns have been documented in several countries, whether long-lasting or temporary. In Spain, a decline in and absence of birth seasonality was reported in 1941–2000. This study extends the analysis to the full period of available monthly data, exploring changes in birth seasonality in Spain, its connection to social/health phenomena, and its related effects
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Measuring the educational gradient of period fertility in 28 European countries: A new approach based on parity-specific fertility estimates (by Angela Greulich, Laurent Toulemon) Demographic Research (IF 2.1) Pub Date : 2023-11-28 Angela Greulich, Laurent Toulemon
Background: Measures of fertility by level of female education are currently only available for cohorts that have already completed childbearing age. The focus on cohorts whose fertility decisions were made in the past is problematic when the objective is to better understand which specific groups within European countries are currently the most affected by low and/or declining fertility. Objective:
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Point estimation of certain measures in organizational demography using variable-r methods (by Michael Lachanski) Demographic Research (IF 2.1) Pub Date : 2023-11-16
Background: The distribution of job tenure plays an important role in demography, economics, and sociology. Job tenure in a labor market is analogous to age in a population. Demographers have used indirect methods based on variable-r methods to estimate parameters for life table models. The variable-r method can also be employed to estimate the parameters of a job tenure table model that yields the
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The COVID-19 pandemic and fertility responses: TFR simulation analysis using parity progressions in South Korea (by Seulki Choi, Da eun Kwan, Bongoh Kye) Demographic Research (IF 2.1) Pub Date : 2023-11-15 Seulki Choi, Da eun Kwan, Bongoh Kye
Background: The COVID-19 pandemic has had a notable impact on marriage and fertility intentions. Existing research has found that the impact of the pandemic on childbearing intentions and outcomes has varied across countries. Yet it remains unclear what the post-COVID-19 fertility rate would be if the changes in childbearing intentions observed during the pandemic translated into corresponding behavioral
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Attitudes toward work and parenthood following family-building transitions in Sweden: Identifying differences by gender and education (by Eva Bernhardt, Frances Goldscheider, Malgorzata Switek) Demographic Research (IF 2.1) Pub Date : 2023-11-09 Eva Bernhardt, Frances Goldscheider, Malgorzata Switek
Objective: This paper examines how family-building transitions (union formation and first birth) affect the attitudes of Swedes toward work and parenthood. The literature finds that these life course transitions have a traditionalizing effect on gender roles. Is this also the case in Sweden, one of the most gender-equal countries in the world? Methods: Our study uses the longitudinal Young Adult Panel