Objective: This paper investigates and predicts the impact of family policies and the economic situation on women’s reproductive behavior in Tehran Province, Iran. Methods: The low fertility behavior of women in terms of simultaneous interaction among such agents as household, women, and government is modeled using a multi-agent-based modeling. The probability, heterogeneity, uncertainty, and interactions of agents are the top features of the model. The model is developed based on the micro level and utilized at the macro level for the prediction of a range of such reproductive outcomes as the total fertility rate (TFR), the cumulative frequency of children ever born, unwanted and wanted pregnancies, miscarriage, and induced abortions of women in Tehran Province during 2019 and 2029. Results: The results derived by the model projects show that the TFR in Tehran Province will decline with a steep downward trend over 10 years from 1.4 children in 2019 to 1.06 children in 2029 while the peak of childbearing is observed for the age group 25 to 29. With the implementation of the optimistic economic scenario and the provision of family support policies by the government, the TFR would reach 1.1 children in 2029, and the peak of childbearing will shift to the 20 to 24 age group. Contribution: This paper provides a multi-agent-based model for low fertility as a complex system. This model facilitates computer-based simulations, enhances demographic methods, and is a useful tool for evaluating the impacts of long-term population policies. The results help policymakers to predict the outcomes that may be obtained in the future based on the current population policies and programs.

中文翻译：

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家庭政策和经济形势对伊朗德黑兰低生育率的影响：基于多主体的模型（作者：Nasibeh Esmaeili、Mohammad Jalal Abbasi Shavazi）


目的：本文调查并预测了伊朗德黑兰省家庭政策和经济状况对妇女生育行为的影响。方法：使用基于多主体的模型对家庭、妇女和政府等主体之间同时互动的女性低生育行为进行建模。概率、异质性、不确定性和主体的相互作用是该模型的首要特征。该模型是基于微观层面开发的，并在宏观层面上用于预测一系列生殖结果，如总生育率（TFR）、累计出生子女频率、意外怀孕和想要怀孕、流产和生育率。 2019 年和 2029 年德黑兰省妇女人工流产的情况。 结果：模型项目得出的结果显示，德黑兰省的 TFR 将在 10 年内呈急剧下降趋势，从 2019 年的 1.4 个孩子下降到 2029 年的 1.06 个孩子，而生育高峰出现在25岁至29岁年龄段。随着乐观经济形势的落实和政府家庭扶持政策的实施，2029年生育率将达到1.1，生育高峰将转向2029年。 20至24岁年龄段。贡献：本文提供了一个基于多主体的低生育率复杂系统模型。该模型有利于基于计算机的模拟，增强了人口统计方法，并且是评估长期人口政策影响的有用工具。研究结果有助于政策制定者根据当前的人口政策和计划预测未来可能获得的结果。