Background: The COVID-19 pandemic highlighted the importance of civil registration and vital statistics (CRVS) systems for tracking and monitoring mortality outcomes during a public health crisis, especially in low- and middle-income countries. Alternative mortality data sources, such as censuses and surveys, offer an opportunity to assess the impact of health crises on countries with incomplete CRVS systems. Objective: Our aim is to show that data on retrospective household deaths collected in household surveys produce informative adult mortality numbers that can be useful in estimating mortality in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic in countries with incomplete CRVS systems, such as Peru. Methods: Using data on household deaths in the previous five years from the National Demographic and Family Health Surveys of Peru (ENDES) from 2018, 2019, 2021, and 2022, we estimate the probability of dying between ages 20 and 64 (45q20) and compare the results with estimates from the World Population Prospects (WPP) 2022 revision and with estimates attained using the sibling survival method. Results: We verify that 45q20 estimates from ENDES household death information fall close to those reported by the WPP 2022. However, these estimates have high confidence intervals due to the small sample size. The sibling survival method consistently estimates lower adult mortality probabilities, even in pandemic years. Despite the difference in magnitude between the WPP 2022 estimates and those from household deaths, both provide a picture of an increase in the probability of dying among adults during the pandemic period. This is not reflected in estimates made using the sibling survival method. Contribution: Despite small sample size and irregularities in age-specific estimates, our work shows that survey questions on household deaths have a great potential for informing adult mortality over time in countries with deficient CRVS systems.

中文翻译：

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利用调查中的家庭死亡问题评估健康危机时期的成人死亡率：2018-2022 年秘鲁的申请（作者：José Henrique Costa Monteiro da Silva、Helena Cruz Castanheira）


背景：COVID-19 大流行凸显了民事登记和生命统计 (CRVS) 系统在公共卫生危机期间跟踪和监测死亡率结果的重要性，特别是在低收入和中等收入国家。人口普查和调查等其他死亡率数据来源为评估健康危机对 CRVS 系统不完整的国家的影响提供了机会。目标：我们的目的是表明，家庭调查中收集的回顾性家庭死亡数据可产生信息丰富的成人死亡率数据，可用于估计秘鲁等 CRVS 系统不完整的国家在 COVID-19 大流行背景下的死亡率。方法：使用 2018 年、2019 年、2021 年和 2022 年秘鲁国家人口和家庭健康调查 (ENDES) 中过去五年的家庭死亡数据，我们估计了 20 岁至 64 岁之间的死亡概率 (45q20) 和将结果与《世界人口展望》(WPP) 2022 年修订版的估计值以及使用兄弟姐妹生存法获得的估计值进行比较。结果：我们验证了 ENDES 家庭死亡信息中的 45q20 估计值与 WPP 2022 报告的值接近。但是，由于样本量较小，这些估计值具有较高的置信区间。即使在大流行年份，兄弟姐妹生存法始终估计出较低的成人死亡率概率。尽管 WPP 2022 年的估计值与家庭死亡的估计值之间存在差异，但两者都提供了大流行期间成年人死亡概率增加的情况。这没有反映在使用兄弟生存法进行的估计中。 贡献：尽管样本量较小且特定年龄估计存在不规则性，但我们的工作表明，在 CRVS 系统缺陷的国家，有关家庭死亡的调查问题在了解成人死亡率方面具有巨大潜力。