Background: To increase the lowest fertility rate in the European Union in 2015, combat poverty, and invest in children’s human capital, the Polish government launched a pronatalist cash transfer program in 2016. Objective: What are the short-term fertility effects of the Family 500+ cash transfer? Which groups of women responded to the cash transfer? Methods: Using the Polish Household Budget Survey (2010–2018), I estimate linear probability regression models to identify the effect of the cash transfer on the probability of a birth as a function of a woman’s cash transfer eligibility, including heterogeneous effects by age, income, and education. Results: In the short term, the cash transfer is associated with an increased annual probability of overall births by 1.5 percentage points. Heterogeneity analyses reveal the cash transfer is associated with increased fertility for women aged 31–40 (0.7 to 1.8 percentage points), in contrast to decreased fertility for women aged 21–30 (2.2 to 2.6 percentage points) and women with higher household incomes (1 percentage point). Conclusions: This analysis provides mixed evidence on the short-term efficacy of the cash transfer on fertility. Some demographic groups are more sensitive to the additional income, suggesting that the economic and social barriers to fertility are not equally distributed in the Polish population. Contribution: Descriptive analyses of changing short-term fertility can facilitate timely adjustments to policies, identify emerging trends that may signal long-term patterns, and inform resource allocation.

中文翻译：

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现金转移支付和生育率：来自波兰家庭 500+ 政策的证据（作者：Anna Bokun）


背景：为了提高 2015 年欧盟最低的生育率、消除贫困并投资于儿童的人力资本，波兰政府于 2016 年启动了一项生育现金转移支付计划。目标：Family 500+ 现金转移支付对短期生育有什么影响？哪些女性群体对现金转移支付做出了回应？方法：使用波兰家庭预算调查（2010-2018 年），我估计线性概率回归模型，以确定现金转移对出生概率的影响与女性现金转移资格的函数关系，包括年龄、收入和教育程度的异质性影响。结果：在短期内，现金转移支付与总出生率的年概率增加 1.5 个百分点相关。异质性分析显示，现金转移支付与 31-40 岁女性的生育率提高（0.7 至 1.8 个百分点）相关，而 21-30 岁女性的生育率下降（2.2 至 2.6 个百分点）和家庭收入较高的女性（1 个百分点）则与现金转移支付相关。结论： 该分析为现金转移支付对生育率的短期效果提供了混合证据。一些人口群体对额外收入更为敏感，这表明生育的经济和社会障碍在波兰人口中的分布并不均。贡献： 对不断变化的短期生育率进行描述性分析有助于及时调整政策，确定可能预示长期模式的新趋势，并为资源分配提供信息。