Background: The relationship between income and fertility appears to be changing across rich societies at the national and regional levels. However, less is known about how the individual-level relationship between income and fertility has changed over time. Objective: To examine how the relationship between income and fertility changed between 2008 and 2022 in the Netherlands, and how this trend differs by gender and parity. Methods: Using register data on the full population, I link income quintiles in year t–2 to births in year t. Separate logistic regression models are estimated for each gender and year. Results: Over the 2008–2022 period, income became increasingly positively associated with fertility. Although income effects are stronger for men than for women, the intensifying of the income effect over time is evident for both genders. These results are driven by first births. For higher-order births, income effects are much weaker and did not change over the study period. Conclusions: Earning a high income constitutes an increasingly strong prerequisite for the transition to parenthood in the Netherlands. This likely contributes to the postponement of parenthood and the decline of fertility and suggests that low-income groups may increasingly be unable to fulfill their fertility desires. Contribution: This study adds to a small number of studies that have shown that the individual-level relationship between income and fertility has become more positive over the past decades in rich societies, and it shows that this trend is driven by first rather than higher-order births.

中文翻译：

---

更高的收入与更高的生育率越来越相关：来自荷兰的证据，2008-2022 年（作者：Daniël van Wijk）


背景：收入和生育率之间的关系似乎在国家和地区层面的富裕社会中正在发生变化。然而，关于收入和生育率之间的个人层面关系如何随着时间的推移而变化，人们知之甚少。目的： 研究荷兰 2008 年至 2022 年期间收入和生育率之间的关系如何变化，以及这一趋势如何因性别和胎均而异。方法：使用总人口的登记数据，我将 t-2 年的收入五分位数与 t 年的出生率联系起来。针对每个性别和年份估计单独的 logistic 回归模型。结果： 在 2008-2022 年期间，收入与生育率的正相关程度越来越高。尽管男性的收入效应比女性强，但随着时间的推移，收入效应的加剧对两性来说都是显而易见的。这些结果是由第一次出生驱动的。对于高阶出生，收入效应要弱得多，并且在研究期间没有变化。结论： 在荷兰，赚取高收入是过渡到父母身份的越来越重要的先决条件。这可能导致父母生育的推迟和生育能力的下降，并表明低收入群体可能越来越无法满足他们的生育愿望。贡献：这项研究补充了少数研究表明，在过去几十年中，富裕社会收入和生育率之间的个人层面关系变得更加积极，它表明这一趋势是由第一胎而不是高阶出生驱动的。