Background: There is a long-standing debate about the role of spacing and stopping in the fertility transition, fueled by a lack of methods to appropriately model spacing and stopping. Traditional event-history analysis cannot distinguish between the two processes in analyzing the determinants of birth risks, and attempts to separately model spacing and stopping have been criticized from a methodological point of view. Objective: Our aim is to assess the role of spacing and stopping in the historic fertility transition generally, and the role of social-class differences in the fertility decline more specifically. Methods: We use cure models, which are extensions of traditional survival analysis, to distinguish the impact of stopping and spacing on fertility. The models are applied to individual-level data for a region in southern Sweden between 1813 and 1967. Results: Both spacing and stopping played a role in the fertility transition, but stopping emerged earlier for all parities after the first and had a greater effect on the reduction in fertility. Higher social classes were forerunners in the fertility transition but we do not find that spacing and stopping operated in different ways by social class. Conclusions: Our findings indicate that stopping had an earlier and more substantial impact on the fertility transition than spacing. However, the patterns of the two behaviors were very similar between social classes. Contribution: Our study is one of very few that applies cure models to distinguish spacing and stopping in the fertility transition, and the first to our knowledge that uses this approach to study class differences in the fertility decline.

中文翻译：

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历史上生育过渡期间间距和停止的社会阶层差异：来自治愈模型的见解（作者：Edoardo Redivo、Martin Dribe、Francesco Scalone）


背景：关于间隔和停止在生育过渡中的作用存在长期争论，由于缺乏适当建模间隔和停止的方法，引发了争论。传统的事件历史分析在分析出生风险的决定因素时无法区分这两个过程，并且从方法论的角度分别模拟间隔和停止的尝试受到了批评。目的： 我们的目标是评估间隔和停止在历史生育率转变中的作用，以及更具体地评估社会阶层差异在生育率下降中的作用。方法：我们使用治愈模型，这是传统生存分析的扩展，来区分停止和间隔对生育能力的影响。这些模型应用于 1813 年至 1967 年间瑞典南部某个地区的个体层面数据。结果： 间隔和停止在生育转变中都起了作用，但在第一次之后的所有胎次中，停止出现得更早，并且对生育率的降低影响更大。较高的社会阶层是生育过渡的先驱，但我们没有发现间隔和停止因社会阶层而异。结论： 我们的研究结果表明，停止对生育过渡的影响比间隔更早、更实质性。然而，这两种行为的模式在社会阶层之间非常相似。贡献： 我们的研究是为数不多的在生育过渡中应用治愈模型来区分间隔和停止的研究之一，也是我们所知道的第一个使用这种方法来研究生育率下降的类别差异的研究。