Background: Seasonality of mortality is a well-research topic. However, there are few cross-national studies on total populations that would allow a clear comparison of the results. This article replicates Rau and Doblhammer (2003) and adjusts their methods to Polish data nearly two decades later. Objective: The article addresses the following questions about the seasonality of deaths in Poland: How do men and women differ in terms of seasonal fluctuations in mortality? How does the seasonality of deaths change with age as well as between cohorts for the same age groups? Do the results follow the ones from the original study? Methods: A 5 percent sample drawn from Polish population ages 50+ who lived in the year 1988 was followed by 30 years. A logistic regression model was used to estimate the odds ratios of dying in different age, sex, and month/season. Results: Winter excess mortality for Poles ages 50+ was 9.6 percent of all deaths in the years 1988–2017. Clear seasonal fluctuations in mortality were recorded for both men and women and different age cohorts. The seasonality increased with age, affected elderly men more than elderly women, and decade of birth had an impact on mortality risk. Contribution: This study documents the seasonality of deaths in Poland by sex and age over the past three decades. It replicates the paper on the Danish population ages 50+ and reflects on differences and similarities between the results.

中文翻译：

---

性别和年龄在季节性死亡率中的作用——以波兰为例（作者：Jacek Cypryjański、Urszula Ala-Karvia、Ewa Putek-Szeląg）


背景：死亡率的季节性是一个深入研究的课题。然而，很少有针对总人口的跨国研究可以对结果进行清晰的比较。本文复制了 Rau 和 Doblhammer (2003) 的内容，并根据近二十年后的数据调整了他们的方法。目标：本文解决了有关波兰死亡季节性的以下问题：男性和女性在死亡率的季节性波动方面有何不同？死亡的季节性如何随年龄以及同一年龄组之间的变化而变化？结果与原始研究的结果一致吗？方法：从生活在 1988 年的 50 岁以上波兰人口中抽取 5% 的样本，并进行 30 年的跟踪调查。使用逻辑回归模型来估计不同年龄、性别和月份/季节的死亡比值比。结果：1988 年至 2017 年期间，50 岁以上波兰人冬季超额死亡率占所有死亡人数的 9.6%。男性和女性以及不同年龄组的死亡率都有明显的季节性波动。季节性随着年龄的增长而增加，对老年男性的影响大于老年女性，出生年份对死亡风险有影响。贡献：这项研究记录了过去三十年波兰按性别和年龄划分的死亡季节性情况。它复制了有关丹麦 50 岁以上人口的论文，并反映了结果之间的差异和相似之处。