Background: Many health and demographic surveys routinely collect information on women’s exposure to family planning (FP) messages, counseling on contraceptive side effects, discussions about FP with providers, contraceptive decision-making autonomy, and the desire for additional children. Several studies have shown significant associations with current contraceptive use status from these cross-sectional data. However, the predictive utility of these indicators on contraceptive use and its dynamics over time is not well-known, primarily due to the lack of longitudinal data. Objective: To empirically assess the predictive utility of key family planning indicators on contraceptive use outcomes using longitudinal data from women participating in national annual surveys in four sub-Saharan African countries. Methods: This study utilizes nationally representative longitudinal Performance and Monitoring for Action data collected in Kenya, Burkina Faso, Uganda, and Côte d’Ivoire from reproductive-age women to model the predictive influence of indicators measured at baseline on their subsequent contraceptive use (including intentions to use and method type) and contraceptive dynamics (including adoption, discontinuation, and switching) over an approximately three-year period. Results: Some indicators measured at baseline (e.g., FP media exposure and fertility preferences) consistently influenced women’s contraceptive adoption and intentions over two to three years of observation, but the predictive utility of most indictors was largely weak for dynamic outcomes such as switching and discontinuation. Contribution: Our study highlights a programmatic need to reconsider long-standing FP indicators given the mixed evidence of their influence on contraceptive behavior over time. We recommend the identification of key measures that can predict dynamic contraceptive behaviors established through longitudinal data to inform actionable interventions.

中文翻译：

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关键计划生育指标对动态避孕结果的预测效用：布基纳法索、肯尼亚、乌干达和科特迪瓦纵向调查的结果（作者：Amy Tsui、Dana Sarnak、Phil Anglewicz、Fredrick Makumbi、Georges Guiella、Peter Gichangi、Rosine）赛义夫丁·艾哈迈德·莫索）


背景：许多健康和人口调查定期收集有关妇女接触计划生育 (FP) 信息、避孕副作用咨询、与提供者关于计划生育的讨论、避孕决策自主权以及生育更多孩子的愿望等信息。几项研究表明，这些横截面数据与当前避孕药具使用状况存在显着关联。然而，这些指标对避孕药具使用及其随时间动态的预测效用尚不清楚，这主要是由于缺乏纵向数据。目标：利用参与撒哈拉以南非洲四个国家国家年度调查的妇女的纵向数据，实证评估关键计划生育指标对避孕药具使用结果的预测效用。方法：本研究利用在肯尼亚、布基纳法索、乌干达和科特迪瓦收集的具有全国代表性的纵向绩效和行动监测数据来模拟基线测量指标对其随后避孕药具使用的预测影响（包括大约三年内的使用意图和方法类型）和避孕动态（包括采用、停用和转换）。结果：在基线测量的一些指标（例如，FP 媒体曝光和生育偏好）在两到三年的观察中持续影响女性避孕药具的采用和意图，但大多数指标的预测效用对于动态结果（例如转换和终止）很弱。贡献：我们的研究强调了重新考虑长期存在的 FP 指标的计划性需要，因为随着时间的推移，这些指标对避孕行为的影响有好有坏。 我们建议确定可以预测通过纵向数据建立的动态避孕行为的关键措施，为可行的干预措施提供信息。