Background: Uruguay was one of the pioneers of the demographic transition in Latin America and the Caribbean. It experienced very early declines in both fertility and mortality, but teenage fertility remained high until recently. Objective: We study the short- and long-term determinants of fertility at different reproductive age stages (less than 20 years old, 20 to 29 years old, and 30 years old and over). Methods: We employ time-series analysis methods based on data from 1968 to 2021 and panel-data techniques based on department-level statistical information from 1984 to 2019. Conclusions: Our time-series analysis indicates a cointegration (long-term) relationship between fertility and economic performance, education, and infant mortality, with differences observed by reproductive age stage. It finds a negative relationship between income and fertility for women aged 20 to 29 that persists for women aged 30 and over and a negative relationship between education and adolescent fertility. A panel-data exercise with econometric techniques allowing us to control for unobserved heterogeneity confirms that income is a relevant factor for all groups of women and reinforces the crucial role of education in reducing teenage fertility. We also identify a negative correlation between fertility and employment rates for women aged 30 years old and over. Our study suggests a very relevant role for education in curbing fertility, especially among teenagers. It also confirms the importance of the level of economic development, providing support for conventional structural or diffusion, maternal role incompatibility, and institutional theories. Our evidence on female employment is not robust to the estimation method. Contribution: We provide the first comprehensive analysis of fertility at different stages of reproductive life for a Latin American and Caribbean country based on a long series of statistical data. Moreover, the case of Uruguay is particularly interesting because of the idiosyncratic features of this magnitude in the country. Our results yield additional evidence that contributes to increasing our understanding of the determinants of this phenomenon and informs policymakers regarding the design of interventions that shape fertility.

中文翻译：

---

乌拉圭生育率的短期和长期决定因素（作者：Zuleika Ferre、José-Ignacio Antón、Patricia Triunfo）


背景：乌拉圭是拉丁美洲和加勒比地区人口转型的先驱之一。它的生育率和死亡率很早就出现下降，但青少年生育率直到最近仍然很高。目的：我们研究不同生育年龄阶段（20 岁以下、20 至 29 岁、30 岁及以上）生育力的短期和长期决定因素。方法：我们采用基于 1968 年至 2021 年数据的时间序列分析方法和基于 1984 年至 2019 年部门级统计信息的面板数据技术。结论：我们的时间序列分析表明，生育率和经济表现、教育和婴儿死亡率，并根据生育年龄阶段观察到差异。研究发现，20 至 29 岁女性的收入与生育率之间存在负相关关系，而 30 岁及以上的女性也同样如此，教育与青少年生育率之间也存在负相关关系。使用计量经济学技术进行的面板数据练习使我们能够控制未观察到的异质性，证实收入是所有妇女群体的相关因素，并强化了教育在降低青少年生育率方面的关键作用。我们还发现 30 岁及以上女性的生育率和就业率之间存在负相关。我们的研究表明，教育在抑制生育率方面发挥着非常重要的作用，尤其是在青少年中。它还证实了经济发展水平的重要性，为传统的结构或扩散、母性角色不相容和制度理论提供了支持。我们关于女性就业的证据对于估计方法来说并不可靠。 贡献：我们基于一系列统计数据，首次对拉丁美洲和加勒比国家不同生育阶段的生育率进行了全面分析。此外，乌拉圭的案例特别有趣，因为该国具有如此巨大的特殊特征。我们的研究结果提供了更多证据，有助于增进我们对这一现象决定因素的理解，并为决策者设计影响生育率的干预措施提供信息。