Background: Population projections for all countries are published by the United Nations Population Division (UNPD) every two years as part of the World Population Prospects (WPP). Since 2015, probabilistic population projections have been published as part of WPP, produced using Bayesian statistical models. Central to this methodological change was a team of statisticians at the University of Washington, led by Professor Adrian Raftery. Objective: This interview with Adrian Raftery details the history of the UNPD WPP probabilistic population projections, including how the project started, the methodological challenges, main takeaways and lessons, and priorities for future research. Contribution: This interview contributes to the record of scientific thought and the advancement of methodology in demographic research. It demonstrates the evolution of a successful scientific project with large scientific impact and a broader influence on the field of Bayesian demography.

中文翻译：

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制定和实施联合国的概率人口预测作为贝叶斯人口学的里程碑：对 Adrian Raftery 的采访（莫妮卡·亚历山大，Adrian E. Raftery）


背景：作为世界人口展望（WPP）的一部分，联合国人口司（UNPD）每两年发布一次所有国家的人口预测。自 2015 年以来，概率人口预测已作为 WPP 的一部分发布，并使用贝叶斯统计模型生成。这一方法论变革的核心是由阿德里安·拉夫特里教授领导的华盛顿大学统计学家团队。目标：Adrian Raftery 的采访详细介绍了 UNPD WPP 概率人口预测的历史，包括项目如何启动、方法论挑战、主要收获和教训以及未来研究的优先事项。贡献：本次采访有助于记录人口研究的科学思想和方法论的进步。它展示了一个成功的科学项目的演变，该项目具有巨大的科学影响力，并对贝叶斯人口学领域产生了更广泛的影响。