Background: As more people recognise the challenges of climate change, an increasing number are trying to reduce their ecological footprint. However, it remains uncertain whether this extends to decisions about having children. Despite public debate, scholarly research remains scarce. Objective: Our aim is to explore whether and how vignettes about climate change impact short-term fertility desires among young adults, and how this may be moderated by perceived personal responsibility and satisfaction with the government. Methods: We conducted an online experiment with university students from Belgium (N = 262) and Italy (N = 169). Respondents not in the control group were exposed to either a pessimistic or a more optimistic climate change vignette before being asked about their fertility desires. Multinomial regression was used for hypothesis testing. Results: The exposure to a pessimistic scenario increased the likelihood of low fertility desire in both Belgian and Italian respondents compared to their control groups. Following the optimistic scenario, Belgians reported a higher probability of high desire, while Italians experienced effects similar to those exposed to the pessimistic scenario. These differences were moderated by feelings of personal responsibility and satisfaction with government’s actions. Conclusions: Respondents’ fertility desires were negatively affected by the pessimistic climate change scenario regardless of their nationality, with notable variation according to perceived responsibility and satisfaction with government actions. Contribution: This paper addresses the current research gap in the literature on climate change concerns and fertility desires through the use of an experiment-based study.

中文翻译：

---

气候变化和生育欲望：比利时和意大利大学生的实验研究（作者：Sara Bisi、Nadia Sturm、Jan Van Bavel）


背景：随着越来越多的人认识到气候变化的挑战，越来越多的人正在努力减少他们的生态足迹。然而，目前还不确定这是否会影响到生育孩子的决定。尽管存在公开争论，但学术研究仍然很少。目标：我们的目的是探讨有关气候变化的小事是否以及如何影响年轻人的短期生育愿望，以及如何通过个人责任感和对政府的满意度来调节这种影响。方法：我们对来自比利时 (N = 262) 和意大利 (N = 169) 的大学生进行了在线实验。不属于对照组的受访者在被问及他们的生育愿望之前，会接触到悲观或更乐观的气候变化小插曲。多项回归用于假设检验。结果：与对照组相比，比利时和意大利受访者的悲观情景增加了生育意愿较低的可能性。在乐观情景之后，比利时人报告高欲望的可能性更高，而意大利人则经历了与悲观情景相似的影响。这些差异受到个人责任感和对政府行为的满意度的影响。结论：无论国籍如何，受访者的生育愿望都受到悲观气候变化情景的负面影响，根据感知的责任和对政府行为的满意度存在显着差异。贡献：本文通过基于实验的研究解决了当前有关气候变化问题和生育愿望的文献中的研究空白。