Background: Adult obesity has been increasing in the United States since the 1980s. Its future prevalence will be a key determinant for public health. For the cohorts now in young adulthood, the future prevalence of obesity will depend on current prevalence and future increase in weight. Methods: We pooled 92,615 body-mass index (BMI) measures from 26,337 adults interviewed and examined by the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES). We analyzed participants examined between ages 25 and 55 in the years 1998–2018. We applied a functional data analysis technique to probabilistically reconstruct individual BMI trajectories in order to investigate the future prevalence of obesity and severe obesity at age 55, and the mean time spent being obese and severely obese between ages 25 and 55. Results: We found that the prevalence of obesity at age 55 is expected to reach 58% (95% UI, 54%– 61%) for females born in 1984–1988 and 57% (95% UI, 53%–61%) for males born in the same cohort. The prevalence of severe obesity at age 55 will increase rapidly in both sexes. Time spent being obese will increase; e.g., for females from 10.7 years (95% UI, 10.4–10.9 years) in the 1964–1968 cohort to 14.7 years (95% UI, 14.2–15.3 years) in the 1984–1988 birth cohort. Conclusions: Although obesity prevalence may level off in the coming decades, higher prevalence of severe obesity and longer durations of obesity are expected to increase the population burden of this disease. Contribution: Prior research has suggested that prevalence of obesity may level off in the United States. Using innovative functional data analysis methods to probabilistically forecast future obesity, we find that severe obesity and years lived obese will continue to increase. Even if the prevalence of obesity stabilizes, the overall burden of obesity may continue to increase.

中文翻译：

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根据个人 BMI 轨迹预测美国成人肥胖趋势（作者：Nicolas Todd、Mikko Myrskylä）


背景：自 20 世纪 80 年代以来，美国成人肥胖症不断增加。其未来的流行将成为公共卫生的关键决定因素。对于现在处于青年期的人群来说，未来的肥胖患病率将取决于当前的患病率和未来的体重增加。方法：我们汇集了国家健康和营养检查调查 (NHANES) 采访和检查的 26,337 名成年人的 92,615 项体重指数 (BMI) 测量值。我们分析了 1998 年至 2018 年期间接受检查的 25 岁至 55 岁之间的参与者。我们应用功能数据分析技术来概率性地重建个体 BMI 轨迹，以调查 55 岁时肥胖和重度肥胖的未来患病率，以及 25 岁至 55 岁之间肥胖和重度肥胖的平均时间。 结果：我们发现预计 1984 年至 1988 年出生的女性 55 岁肥胖患病率将达到 58%（95% UI，54%–61%），1988 年出生的男性将达到 57%（95% UI，53%–61%）。同一队列。 55 岁时严重肥胖的患病率在男女中都会迅速增加。肥胖的时间会增加；例如，对于 1964-1968 年出生队列中的 10.7 岁（95% UI，10.4-10.9 岁）的女性，到 1984-1988 年出生队列中的 14.7 岁（95% UI，14.2-15.3 岁）。结论：尽管肥胖患病率可能在未来几十年内趋于平稳，但严重肥胖患病率的升高和肥胖持续时间的延长预计将增加该疾病的人口负担。贡献：之前的研究表明，美国的肥胖患病率可能会趋于平稳。使用创新的功能数据分析方法对未来肥胖进行概率预测，我们发现重度肥胖和肥胖年数将继续增加。 即使肥胖患病率稳定下来，肥胖的总体负担也可能继续增加。