We propose a latent-variables approach to recover extrapolative beliefs from asset prices. We estimate a present-value model of the price–dividend ratio of the market that embeds both return extrapolation and cash-flow extrapolation, alongside discount rates and rational expectations of dividend growth. This approach allows us to measure extrapolation bias without having to rely on survey data, and

We study the impact of disclosure and inattention on the decision to retain fee-based financial advice using a two-tiered natural regulatory experiment. Increased salience in fee disclosure raises the drop rate for advice, implying improved attention — particularly for relatively sophisticated investors. However, a novel auto-drop requirement for inattentive investors generates far more drops, implying

We analyze survey data on ESG beliefs and preferences in a large panel of retail investors linked to administrative data on their investment portfolios. The survey elicits investors’ expectations of long-term ESG equity returns and asks about their motivations, if any, to invest in ESG assets. We document four facts. First, investors generally expected ESG investments to underperform the market. Between

We study biodiversity finance—the use of private capital to finance biodiversity conservation and restoration—which is a new practice in sustainable finance. First, we provide a conceptual framework that lays out how biodiversity can be financed by pure private capital and blended financing structures. In the latter, private capital is blended with public or philanthropic capital, whose aim is to de-risk

This paper uses hand-collected historical data to provide empirical evidence on the strategic trading behavior of insiders and its consequences for outsiders. Specifically, we collect all equity trades of all insiders and outsiders in an era without legal restrictions on insider trading and a market where trading is non-anonymous. We find that access to private information creates a significant gap

Rising interest rates can create “mortgage rate lock” for homeowners with fixed rate mortgages, who can hold onto their low rates as long as they stay in their homes but would have to take on new mortgages with higher rates if they moved. We show mobility rates fell in 2022 and 2023 for homeowners with mortgages, as market rates rose. We observe both absolute declines and declines relative to homeowners

The change in the cost of capital that results from a divestiture strategy can be closely approximated by a simple function of three parameters: (1) the fraction of socially conscious capital, (2) the fraction of targeted firms in the economy and (3) the return correlation between the targeted firms and the rest of the stock market. When calibrated to current data, we demonstrate that the impact on

This paper analyzes the reputational effects of forced CEO turnovers on outside directors. We find that directors interlocked to a forced CEO turnover experience large and persistent increases in withheld votes at subsequent re-elections relative to non-turnover-interlocked directors. Directors are not penalized for an involvement in a turnover per se but for forced CEO turnovers that are related to

A nationwide panic forced President Roosevelt to declare a banking holiday in March 1933. The government reopened banks sequentially using a process that sent noisy signals about banks’ health. New microdata reveals that the public responded to these signals. Deposits at rapidly reopened banks rebounded quicker than at comparable or stronger banks that reopened even a few days later. The stigma of

We explore the extent to which aspirations – such as those forged in the course of social interactions – explain ‘puzzling’ behavioral patterns in investment decisions. We motivate an aspirational utility, reminiscent of Friedman and Savage (1948), where social considerations (e.g., status concerns) provide an economic foundation for aspirations. We show this utility can explain a range of observed

We develop a novel recovery theorem based on no-arbitrage principles. To implement our Arbitrage-Based Recovery Theorem empirically, one needs to observe the Arrow–Debreu prices only for one single maturity. We perform several different density tests and mean prediction tests using more than 26 years of S&P 500 options data, and we find evidence that our method can correctly recover the probability

Using administrative data on credit profiles matched with unemployment insurance (UI) for individuals in the U.S., we show that laid-off workers with access to Uber rely less on household debt, experience fewer delinquencies, and are less likely to apply for UI benefits. Our empirical strategy exploits both the staggered market entry of Uber across cities and the differential benefit of its entry across

We study information sharing between strategic investors who are informed about asset fundamentals. We demonstrate that a coarsely informed investor optimally chooses to share information if his counterparty investor is well informed. By doing so, the coarsely informed investor invites the other investor to trade against his information, thereby reducing his price impact. Paradoxically, the well informed

We use Swedish administrative data to study the role of unemployment risk in salaried employees’ decisions to become entrepreneurs. Using the 2001 relaxation of Sweden’s last-in-first-out (LIFO) dismissal rule as an exogenous shock to unemployment risk, we find that employees facing increased unemployment risk are more likely to become entrepreneurs. The effect is more pronounced for employees with

We characterize investors’ moral preferences in a parsimonious experimental setting, where we auction stocks with various ethical features. We find strong evidence that investors seek to align their investments with their social values (“value alignment”), and find no evidence of behavior driven by the social impact of investment decisions (“impact-seeking preferences”). First, the willingness to pay

This paper develops a difference-in-differences estimator that uses annual changes in the conforming loan limit and the 80% loan-to-value (LTV) threshold to isolate the impact of easier access to credit on house prices. Houses that become eligible for financing with an 80% LTV conforming loan increase in value by about $1.17 per square foot, controlling for a rich set of characteristics. Our estimates

Errors in survey expectations display waves of pessimism and optimism. This paper develops a novel theoretical framework of time-varying beliefs capturing this fact. In our model, dynamic beliefs arise endogenously due to agents’ attitude towards alternative models. Decision-maker’s distorted beliefs generate countercyclical risk aversion, procyclical portfolio weights, and countercyclical equilibrium

We study how information technology (IT) affects lender competition, entrepreneurs’ investment, and welfare in a spatial model. The effects of an IT improvement depend on whether it weakens the influence of lender–borrower distance on monitoring costs. If it does, it has a hump-shaped effect on entrepreneurs’ investment and social welfare. If not, competition intensity does not vary, improving lender

Our paper analyzes whether a planner should design a taxonomy for sustainable investment products when conventional tools for environmental regulation can also be used to address externalities arising from firm production. We first show that the private market provision of ESG funds marketed to retail investors involves greenwashing, so that a mandatory taxonomy is necessary to generate real effects

This paper studies the heterogeneous effects of subjective macroeconomic expectations on the cross-section of equity returns. We argue that an upward revision in expectations of macroeconomic productivity might be accompanied by an excessive increase in investment and external financing, inflated current equity prices, and thus lowered subsequent returns, particularly for financially constrained firms

We develop a model to compare the governance of traditional shareholder-owned platforms to that of platforms that issue tokens. A traditional shareholder governance structure leads a platform to extract rents from its users. A platform that issues tokens for its services can mitigate this rent extraction, as rent extraction lowers the platform owners’ token seigniorage revenues. However, this mitigation

What characteristics of mutual funds do investors care about? In addition to performance and fees, we show that investors exhibit a clear preference for managers who adhere to the strategies they describe in their prospectuses. Capital flows respond negatively when funds diverge from the average holdings of their text-based strategy peer groups, but positively when they outperform those peer averages

We propose a formal statistical test to compare asset-pricing models in the presence of price impact. In contrast to the case without trading costs, we show that in the presence of price-impact costs different models may be best at spanning the investment opportunities of different investors depending on their absolute risk aversion. Empirically, we find that the five-factor model of Hou et al. (2021)

Investment-based asset pricing models typically predict a close link between a firm’s stock return and its characteristics at any point in time. Yet, previous studies have primarily focused on the weaker prediction that this link holds on average, finding substantial empirical support. We show how to incorporate the time-series predictions in the estimation and testing of investment-based models using

We study the extent to which time-variation in market betas influence estimates of CAPM alphas. Given the observed variation in conditional market betas, market risk premia, and market variance, the required compensation for conditional market risk can, in theory, be as large as the unconditional equity premium. We implement the conditional CAPM using state-of-the-art methods in a broad global sample

This paper studies the rise of direct lending using a comprehensive dataset of investments by business development companies (BDC). We exploit three exogenous shocks to credit supply, including new banking regulations and a major finance company collapse, to establish that BDC capital acts as a substitute for traditional financing. Using firm-level data, we further document that firms’ access to BDC

RMBS sponsors contributed to the rise of new product features in securitized mortgages prior to the 2008 financial crisis. Using a regulatory shock to sponsor competition , we show securitization influences the design of mortgage contracts, empirically demonstrating a unique, feedback loop of product differentiation from the derived security (MBS) to the underlying asset (loans). Product differentiation

We examine the pricing of sustainability-linked bonds (SLBs), where the cash flows depend on the bond issuer achieving one or more Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) goals. Investors are willing to accept a 1–2bps lower yield due to the bond’s ESG label, providing evidence of investors caring about environmental impact. Furthermore, we find the average probability of missing the target is 14%–39%

This paper studies the causal effects of personal investment taxes on stock returns and the financial decisions of companies. I exploit a change in legislation in 2013 which allowed stocks listed on the Alternative Investment Market, a sub-market of the London Stock Exchange, to be held in capital gains and dividend tax-exempt investment accounts for the first time. Using a difference-in-differences

We propose a model of the financial system in which banks are individually prone to runs and connected through fire sales. Strategic complementarities within and across banks amplify each other, making heterogeneity in bank risks a key factor shaping the fragility of each bank and the entire system. As long as different banks are interconnected, an increase in heterogeneity stabilizes all banks. Reductions

Using granular data on U.S. hotel investments over the past two decades, we show that industry-specialist PE firms achieve higher net income from operations and higher capital gains from sale than generalist PE firms for comparable properties. Those results are driven by specialists implementing more and larger cost savings without compromising revenues. Fundamentally, specialists utilize their hotel-specific

We develop a general equilibrium model of self-fulfilling bank runs. The key novelty is the way in which the banking system’s assets and liabilities are connected. Banks issue loans to entrepreneurs who sell goods to households, which in turn pay for the goods by redeeming bank deposits. The return on bank assets is thus contingent on households being able to withdraw their deposits. In a run, not

We develop a structural credit risk model, which allows us to price equity/credit indices and their options through the asset dynamics of index constituents. We estimate the model via MLE and find that equity and credit index option prices are well explained out-of-sample. Contrary to recent empirical findings, the two option markets are not inconsistently priced through the lens of our model. Returns

We provide the first analysis of the risk exposure and risk-adjusted performance of impact investing funds, private market funds with dual financial and social goals. We introduce a dataset of impact fund cash flows and exploit distortions in VC performance measures to characterize risk profiles. Impact funds have a lower market than comparable private market strategies. Accounting for , impact funds

We propose no-arbitrage term structure models with volatility factors that follow GARCH processes. The models’ tractability is similar to canonical affine term structure models, but they fit yield volatility much better, especially for long-maturity yields. This improvement does not come at the expense of a deterioration in yield fit. Because of the improved volatility fit, the model performs substantially

We document aggregate outflows from corporate bond mutual funds days before and after the announcement of increases in the Federal Funds Target rate (FFTar). To rationalize this phenomenon, we build a model in which funds’ net-asset-values (NAVs) are stale and investors strategically redeem to profit from the mispricing when they learn about the increases of FFTar. Consistent with the model’s predictions

A critical question facing speculators contemplating to trade on private information is whether their signal has already been priced in by the market. In our model, speculators assess the novelty of their information based on recent price movements, and market makers are aware that speculators might be trading on stale news. An asymmetric response to past price movements ensues: after price increases

Popular bid–ask spread estimators are downward biased when trading is infrequent. Moreover, they consider only a subset of open, high, low, and close prices and neglect potentially useful information to improve the spread estimate. By accounting for discretely observed prices, this paper derives asymptotically unbiased estimators of the effective bid–ask spread. Moreover, we combine them optimally

We study the international coordination of bank capital requirements under a host-country rule: the requirement depends on where the borrower, not the bank, is located. In such a regime, countries compete for scarce bank equity capital. Raising a country’s requirement may generate bank capital outflows as well as inflows. We pin down the condition for the sign of the capital flow and the associated

Consistent with contemporaneous research, we document that minority-owned firms were more likely than observationally similar white-owned firms to receive PPP loans from nonbank lenders than from banks. However, we show that this substitution to nonbanks was only partial, resulting in significantly lower PPP take-up by minority-owned firms, particularly Black-owned ones. Location and firm characteristics

This paper studies how tightening monetary policy transmits to the economy through the mortgage market and sheds new light on the distributional consequences at both individual and regional levels. We specifically examine the sharp increase in mortgage interest rates during 2022 and 2023. We find that almost all of the decline in mortgages compared to prior years was concentrated in loans that would

We analyze two insider-trading regulations recently introduced by the Securities and Exchange Commission: mandatory disclosure and “cooling-off period”. The former requires insiders disclose trading plans at adoption, while the latter mandates a delay period before trading. These policies affect investors’ trading profits, risk sharing, and hence their welfare. If the insider has sufficiently large

We test a bank credit channel through which unexpected increases in inflation lead to short-run macroeconomic fluctuations. For identification, we study an unexpected U.S. inflation increase in early 1977 and exploit differences in state-level reserve requirements for Federal Reserve nonmember banks, which create differences in banks’ inflation exposures. More exposed banks reduce lending, lowering

An AI analyst trained to digest corporate disclosures, industry trends, and macroeconomic indicators surpasses most analysts in stock return predictions. Nevertheless, humans win “Man vs. Machine” when institutional knowledge is crucial, e.g., involving intangible assets and financial distress. AI wins when information is transparent but voluminous. Humans provide significant incremental value in “Man

We study the optimal execution problem in a principal–agent setting. A client contracts to purchase from a dealer. The dealer hedges, buying from the market, creating temporary and permanent price impact. The client chooses a contract, which specifies payment as a function of market prices; hidden action precludes conditioning on the dealer’s hedging trades. We show the first-best benchmark is theoretically

Trading in cryptocurrencies grew rapidly over the last decade, dominated by retail investors. Using data from eToro, we show that retail traders are contrarian in stocks and gold, yet the same traders follow a momentum-like strategy in cryptocurrencies. The differences are not explained by individual characteristics, investor composition, inattention, differences in fees, or preference for lottery-like

We develop a conceptual framework and an empirical methodology to analyze the effect of rising interest rates on the value of U.S. bank assets and bank stability. We mark-to-market the value of banks’ assets due to interest rate increases from Q1 2022 to Q1 2023, revealing an average decline of 10 %, totaling about $2 trillion in aggregate. We present a model illustrating how asset value declines due

We investigate how high-frequency trading (HFT) in equity markets affects options market liquidity. We find that increased aggressive HFT activity in the stock market leads to wider bid–ask spreads in the options market through two main channels. First, options market makers’ quotes are exposed to sniping risk from HFTs exploiting put–call parity violations. Second, informed trading in the options

In the U.S., student debt is currently the second largest component of consumer debt. Households are required to repay these loans early in their lifecycle, when marginal utility is particularly high. We study alternative contracts that offer partial or full payment deferral until later in life. We calibrate an economy with the current contracts, and then solve for counterfactual equilibria. The alternative

We find that central bank reserves injected by QE crowd out bank lending. We estimate a structural model with cross-sectional instrumental variables for deposit and loan demand. Our results are determined by the elasticity of loan demand and the impact of reserve holdings on the cost of supplying loans. The reserves injected by QE raise loan rates by 7.4 basis points, and each dollar of reserves reduces

Transaction costs have a first-order effect on the performance of currency portfolios. Proportional costs based on quoted bid–ask spread are relatively small, but when a fund is large, costs due to the trading volume price impact are sizable and quickly erode returns, leaving many popular strategies unprofitable. A mean–variance-transaction-cost optimized approach (MVTC) that accounts for costs in

We estimate a structural model of borrowing and lending in the illegal money lending market using a unique panel survey of 1,090 borrowers taking out 11,032 loans from loan sharks. We use the model to evaluate the effects of interventions aimed at limiting this market. We find that an enforcement crackdown that occurred during our sample period increased lenders’ unit cost of harassment and interest

Does the stock market exert short-term pressure on listed firms, do they respond, and is this response value reducing? We show that limited investor horizons indeed have those consequences, as follows. First, informative stock prices increase firm value; in our model, they reduce the agency cost of incentivizing managers. Second, short project maturity improves stock price informativeness by catering

How does financial market concentration affect capital allocation? We propose a complete-markets model in which real investment and financial price impact are jointly determined in general equilibrium. We identify a two-way feedback mechanism whereby price impact induces misallocation and misallocation raises price impact. The mechanism is stronger if productivity is low or productivity dispersion

The slope carry takes a long (short) position in the long-term bonds of countries with steeper (flatter) yield curves. The traditional carry takes a long (short) position in countries with high (low) short-term rates. We document that: (i) the slope carry return is slightly negative (strongly positive) in the pre (post) 2008 period, whereas it is concealed over longer samples; (ii) the traditional

Using 31 years of data (1990–2020) on U.S. Treasury dealer positions, we find that Treasury issuance is the main driver of dealers’ weekly inventory changes. Such inventory fluctuations are only partially offset in adjacent weeks and not significantly hedged with futures. Dealers are compensated for inventory risk by means of subsequent price appreciation of their holdings. Amid increased balance sheet

We study how intermediaries – mortgage servicers – shaped the implementation of mortgage forbearance during the COVID-19 pandemic and use servicer-level variation to trace out the causal effects of forbearance on borrowers. Forbearance provision varied widely across servicers. Small servicers, nonbanks, and especially nonbanks with small liquidity buffers, facilitated fewer forbearances and saw a higher

We exploit the extinction of the thrift supervisor (OTS) to analyze the effects of supervision on bank lending and bank management. We first show that the OTS replacement resulted in stricter supervision of former OTS banks. Next, we analyze the ensuing lending effects and show that former OTS banks on average increase small business lending by roughly 10 percent. This increase is concentrated in well-capitalized

In household finance markets, inactive households can implicitly cross-subsidize active households who promptly respond to financial incentives. We assess the magnitude and distribution of cross-subsidies in the mortgage market. To do so, we build a structural model of household mortgage refinancing and estimate it on rich administrative data covering the stock of outstanding mortgages in the UK. We