Trading in cryptocurrencies grew rapidly over the last decade, dominated by retail investors. Using data from eToro, we show that retail traders are contrarian in stocks and gold, yet the same traders follow a momentum-like strategy in cryptocurrencies. The differences are not explained by individual characteristics, investor composition, inattention, differences in fees, or preference for lottery-like assets. We conjecture that retail investors have a model where cryptocurrency price changes affect the likelihood of future widespread adoption, which leads them to further update their price expectations in the same direction.

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加密货币有什么不同吗？来自零售交易的证据


过去十年，加密货币交易迅速增长，由散户投资者主导。使用 eToro 的数据，我们发现散户交易者在股票和黄金方面采取逆势操作，但同样的交易者在加密货币方面遵循类似动量的策略。这些差异不能用个人特征、投资者构成、注意力不集中、费用差异或对彩票类资产的偏好来解释。我们推测，散户投资者有一个模型，其中加密货币价格变化会影响未来广泛采用的可能性，这导致他们朝同一方向进一步更新价格预期。