Abstract Developing tailored management strategies to ensure the sustainability of groundwater resource under climatic and demographic changes is critical for tropical karst catchment, where relatively small watershed and highly porous soil make this natural resource highly susceptible and thus very sensitive to those changes. In this study, long term impacts of climate variability on groundwater recharge and discharge at Oemau spring, Rote Island, Indonesia were selected and investigated. Following calibration and validation of groundwater model using MODFLOW code, groundwater flow was simulated for the period of 2020–2090 under HadCM3 global climate model (GCM) scenarios, using input data of weather variables downscaled by Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM). The reported analysis suggests that the sustainability of groundwater resources, which was evaluated by assessing the ability of the spring to supply water demand from irrigation requirement and domestic consumption, generally varies over the period and will be adversely affected by climate change during dry periods when the area is projected to variably experience supply shortage of around 29–67 L/s as a result of 5.24–23.63% decrease of rainfall, 2.48–24.57% reduction of recharge, and 2.53–22.80% decrease of spring discharge, under HadCM3 GCM scenarios. A subsequent comprehensive set of management strategies as palliative and adaptive efforts was proposed to be implemented by relevant stakeholders to assist the community dealing with water deficit during the dry periods. Three main adaptive strategies, namely socio-cultural, technical, and ecological measures, were proposed by incorporating physical and socio-economic characteristics of the area. This study presents a blueprint for assessing groundwater sustainability under climate change scenarios and developing tailored management strategies to cope with adverse impacts of climate change, which may become fundamental guidelines across other karst islands in the future.

中文翻译：

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评估气候变化对热带岩溶集水区的影响：对地下水资源可持续性和管理战略的影响

摘要 制定量身定制的管理策略以确保在气候和人口变化下地下水资源的可持续性对于热带喀斯特集水区至关重要，其中相对较小的流域和高度多孔的土壤使这种自然资源非常容易受到这些变化的影响，因此对这些变化非常敏感。在这项研究中，选择并调查了气候变化对印度尼西亚罗特岛 Oemau 泉地下水补给和排放的长期影响。在使用 MODFLOW 代码对地下水模型进行校准和验证之后，使用由统计降尺度模型 (SDSM) 降尺度的天气变量的输入数据，在 HadCM3 全球气候模型 (GCM) 情景下模拟了 2020-2090 年期间的地下水流量。报告的分析表明，地下水资源的可持续性，这是通过评估春季满足灌溉需求和家庭用水需求的能力来评估的，通常在此期间会发生变化，并且在干旱时期将受到气候变化的不利影响，预计该地区将经历 29 左右的供应短缺。在 HadCM3 GCM 情景下，由于降雨量减少 5.24-23.63%、补给量减少 2.48-24.57% 以及春季流量减少 2.53-22.80% 导致 –67 L/s。随后，相关利益相关者提出了一套作为姑息和适应措施的综合管理战略，以协助社区应对干旱时期的缺水问题。三种主要的适应战略，即社会文化、技术和生态措施，是通过结合该地区的自然和社会经济特征而提出的。本研究为评估气候变化情景下的地下水可持续性和制定量身定制的管理策略以应对气候变化的不利影响提供了蓝图，这可能成为未来其他喀斯特岛屿的基本准则。