全球森林未来气候情景下的碳密度驱动因素和变化,Forest Ecology and Management

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全球森林未来气候情景下的碳密度驱动因素和变化
Forest Ecology and Management ( IF 3.7 ) Pub Date : 2019-10-01 , DOI: 10.1016/j.foreco.2019.117463
Yanrong Guo , Changhui Peng , Ralph Trancoso , Qiuan Zhu , Xiaolu Zhou

摘要气候和土壤因素驱动森林碳（C）密度。然而，它们对全球森林类型的地上碳密度 (ACD) 和地下碳密度 (BCD) 的影响在之前的研究中尚未量化。在本研究中，我们编制了包括 8800 个地块的全球森林生物量数据，以更好地量化当前气候和未来气候变化情景（例如，RCP2.6、RCP4.5 和 RCP8）下五种森林类型的总碳密度 (TCD) 的变化。 .5) 使用增强回归树方法和 TCD-stand 年龄-气候模型。热带森林的碳密度最大（130.0 ± 3.2 Mg C ha -1 ；173.60 ± 17.24 Mg C ha -1 ），而北方森林的 TCD 最低（59.4 ± 0.9 Mg C ha -1 ；62.34 ± 15.10 Mg C ha -1 ) 在当前和未来。对于当前的森林场景，热带森林的干燥指数 (DI) 对 ACD (4.5 Mg C ha -1 /0.1 DI) 和 BCD (0.9 Mg C ha -1 /0.1 DI) 表现出负的平均变化率。当 MAP ≤ 1100 mm 在温带地区时，平均年降水量 (MAP) 对 ACD (7.1 Mg C ha -1 /100 mm) 和 BCD (1.3 Mg C ha -1 /100 mm) 的平均变化率为正森林。当 MAP > 1100 mm 时，MAP 对于 ACD (1.9 Mg C ha -1 /100 mm) 和 BCD (0.4 Mg C ha -1 /100 mm) 为阴性。北方森林的年平均温度 (MAT) 对 ACD (1.78 Mg C ha -1 /1°C) 和 BCD (0.4 Mg C ha -1 /1°C) 具有正的平均变化率。我们发现与 2050 年相比，DI 对 2070 年热带森林 TCD 变化有积极影响，DI 是热带森林最重要的驱动力。MAP 对 2050 年和 2070 年温带森林的 TCD 变化都有很强的积极影响，其中 MAP 是温带森林最重要的驱动因素。2070 年，在 RCP4.5 (-0.22 ± 10.53 Mg C ha -1 ) 和 RCP8.5 (-4.75 ± 10.80 Mg C ha -1 ) 条件下，MAT 对北方森林的 TCD 变化有负面影响，其中 MAT 是北方森林最重要的驱动力。我们的结果可用于提高碳密度估计的准确性，并评估气候变化对全球森林碳预算的影响。

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Stand carbon density drivers and changes under future climate scenarios across global forests

Abstract Climate and soil factors drive forest carbon (C) density. However, their impacts on the aboveground carbon density (ACD) and belowground carbon density (BCD) of global forest types have not been quantified in previous studies. In this study, we compiled global forest biomass data that included 8800 plots to better quantify the changes in total carbon density (TCD) of five forest types under current climate and future climate change scenarios (e.g., RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) using the boosted regression tree method and TCD-stand age-climate models. Tropical forests have the largest amount of C density (130.0 ± 3.2 Mg C ha −1 ; 173.60 ± 17.24 Mg C ha −1 ), while boreal forests have the lowest TCDs (59.4 ± 0.9 Mg C ha −1 ; 62.34 ± 15.10 Mg C ha −1 ) in the current and future. For the current forest scenarios, the dryness index (DI) for tropical forests exhibited a negative mean change rate for the ACD (4.5 Mg C ha −1 /0.1 DI) and BCD (0.9 Mg C ha −1 /0.1 DI). The mean annual precipitation (MAP) had a positive mean change rate for the ACD (7.1 Mg C ha −1 /100 mm) and BCD (1.3 Mg C ha −1 /100 mm) when the MAP was ≤1100 mm in the temperate forests. The MAP was negative for the ACD (1.9 Mg C ha −1 /100 mm) and BCD (0.4 Mg C ha −1 /100 mm) when the MAP was >1100 mm. The mean annual temperature (MAT) in boreal forests had a positive mean change rate for the ACD (1.78 Mg C ha −1 /1°C) and BCD (0.4 Mg C ha −1 /1°C). We found that in contrast to 2050, there were positive impacts of the DI on the TCD change in tropical forests in 2070, and the DI was the most important driver for tropical forests. There were strong positive MAP impacts on the TCD change in temperate forests in both 2050 and 2070, where the MAP was the most important driver for temperate forests. There were negative MAT impacts on the TCD change in boreal forests under RCP4.5 (−0.22 ± 10.53 Mg C ha −1 ) and RCP8.5 (−4.75 ± 10.80 Mg C ha −1 ) in 2070, and the MAT was the most important driver in boreal forests. Our results could be used to improve the accuracy of C density estimates and assess climate change impacts on the C budgets of global forests.

更新日期：2019-10-01

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