Global estimates of mammalian viral diversity accounting for host sharing.,Nature Ecology & Evolution

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Global estimates of mammalian viral diversity accounting for host sharing.
Nature Ecology & Evolution ( IF 13.9 ) Pub Date : 2019-06-10 , DOI: 10.1038/s41559-019-0910-6
Colin J Carlson ₁ , Casey M Zipfel ₁ , Romain Garnier ₁ , Shweta Bansal ₁

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Present estimates suggest there are over 1 million virus species found in mammals alone, with about half a million posing a possible threat to human health. Although previous estimates assume linear scaling between host and virus diversity, we show that ecological network theory predicts a non-linear relationship, produced by patterns of host sharing among virus species. To account for host sharing, we fit a power law scaling relationship for host-virus species interaction networks. We estimate that there are about 40,000 virus species in mammals (including ~10,000 viruses with zoonotic potential), a reduction of two orders of magnitude from present projections of viral diversity. We expect that the increasing availability of host-virus association data will improve the precision of these estimates and their use in the sampling and surveillance of pathogens with pandemic potential. We suggest host sharing should be more widely included in macroecological approaches to estimating biodiversity.

中文翻译：

关于宿主共享的哺乳动物病毒多样性的全球估计。

目前的估计表明，仅在哺乳动物中就发现了超过一百万种病毒，其中约一百万种可能对人类健康构成威胁。尽管先前的估计假设宿主和病毒多样性之间呈线性比例关系，但我们表明生态网络理论预测了非线性关系，这种关系是由病毒种类之间的宿主共享模式产生的。为了解决主机共享问题，我们为主机-病毒种类交互网络拟合了幂定律比例关系。我们估计哺乳动物中大约有40,000种病毒（包括约10,000种具有人畜共患病潜力的病毒），比目前对病毒多样性的预测减少了两个数量级。我们希望宿主病毒关联数据的可用性不断提高，将提高这些估计值的准确性，并将其用于可能引起大流行的病原体的采样和监视中。我们建议主机共享应该更广泛地包含在估算生物多样性的宏观生态学方法中。

更新日期：2019-06-11

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