Probabilistic performance analysis of longitudinal tunnels based on coupled characterization of stratigraphic and geo-properties uncertainties,Tunnelling and Underground Space Technology

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Probabilistic performance analysis of longitudinal tunnels based on coupled characterization of stratigraphic and geo-properties uncertainties
Tunnelling and Underground Space Technology ( IF 6.7 ) Pub Date : 2025-03-13 , DOI: 10.1016/j.tust.2025.106552
Chao Zhao , Wenping Gong , C. Hsein Juang , Huiming Tang , Zhongqiang Liu , Xinli Hu

The geological model (including stratigraphic configuration and geo-properties) of shield tunnels can be varied strongly along the tunnel alignment, due to the large longitudinal length of tunnels and spatial variability of geological bodies. Meanwhile, the geological model uncertainty can exert a significant influence on the evaluated tunnel behavior (e.g., tunnel longitudinal behavior and circumferential behavior of tunnel segment rings). However, the influence of stratigraphic and geo-properties uncertainties on the tunnel behavior has not been revealed. To this end, this paper presents a novel framework for the tunnel behavior analysis considering stratigraphic and geo-properties uncertainties. The geological model is sampled utilizing a conditional random field approach in the proposed framework, considering spatial variabilities of strata and geo-properties simultaneously. With generated geological models as inputs, the tunnel longitudinal behavior is estimated using a finite element method; then, the circumferential behavior of tunnel segment rings is evaluated using an analytical solution. The effectiveness of this framework is demonstrated by a case study of a tunnel in China. Further, a comparative analysis is undertaken based upon the monitoring data of the tunnel behavior to investigate the influence of uncertainty sources on the tunnel behavior, through which the significance of the new framework can be illustrated.

更新日期：2025-03-13

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