The reliability analysis method considers the uncertainty of rock parameters, making the stability analysis of underground engineering more accurate. A reliability analysis method applicable to assess the stability of underground water-sealed storage caverns was proposed in the study. In the method, the performance functions were established from the perspectives of the plastic zone and cavern displacement by modifying the elastic–plastic solution of the circular tunnel. The reliability index and probability of failure were calculated using the first-order reliability method and the reliability analysis results calculated by the proposed method and the Monte Carlo method was used to verify the correctness of the proposed method. Finally, the reliability analysis method was used to evaluate the reliability of an underground water-sealed storage caverns stability in southern China. The reliability index and probability of failure of the storage caverns with different support ways were obtained and the optimization design of the support system was determined based on the reliability analysis results.

中文翻译：

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地下水封储库穴稳定性可靠性分析：方法与应用


可靠性分析方法考虑了岩石参数的不确定性，使地下工程的稳定性分析更加准确。本研究提出了一种适用于评价地下水封储库洞室稳定性的可靠性分析方法。该方法通过修改圆形隧道的弹塑性解，从塑性区和洞室位移的角度建立了性能函数。采用一阶可靠性法计算可靠性指标和失效概率，采用所提方法和蒙特卡洛法计算的可靠性分析结果，验证所提方法的正确性。最后，采用可靠性分析方法评价了华南地区某地下水封储库穴室的稳定性。得到了不同支护方式的储藏腔室的可靠性指标和破坏概率，并根据可靠性分析结果确定了支护系统的优化设计。