Annual precipitation and its intensity have increased worldwide since the start of the 20th century and represent two weather and climate change indicators related to rainfall‐induced landslides. Although these landslides can occur in a very short time, the hydro‐mechanical conditions that precede them can take several hours or days to develop. In this context, understanding the mechanisms of rainfall‐induced landslides and their numerical modelling is topical for reducing risks to human life, facilities and infrastructure and economic loss.In this work, a large‐scale experimental hillslope subjected to a controlled rainfall is studied numerically. Sensors and optical fibres were placed in the slope to monitor water pressure and moisture content in the failure layer, as well as axial strain and temperature in the failure surface. The outflow at the toe of the slope was also measured. The experimental hillslope is modelled as a fully coupled variably saturated hydro‐thermo‐mechanical problem in dynamics. A general geometrically linear finite element model based on Hybrid Mixture Theory and enhanced with Taylor‐Hood finite elements is used. The soil response is modelled with the Bolzon–Schrefler model for non‐isothermal variably saturated soils. The failure mechanism is further assessed using the global second‐order work criterion. The comparison between the experimental and numerical results is analysed using the KGE indicator, showing that the model is capable to correctly reproduce both the hydrological dynamics leading to failure and the strain along the failure surface. The global second‐order work criterion proved to predict the proneness to failure.

中文翻译：

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实验性山坡中降雨诱发破坏的多相和多物理场建模


自 20 世纪初以来，全球年降水量及其强度有所增加，代表了与降雨诱发的山体滑坡相关的两个天气和气候变化指标。尽管这些滑坡可以在很短的时间内发生，但之前的水力学条件可能需要几个小时或几天才能形成。在此背景下，了解降雨诱发的山体滑坡的机制及其数值建模对于减少对人类生命、设施和基础设施以及经济损失的风险至关重要。在这项工作中，对受受控降雨影响的大型实验山坡进行了数值研究。在斜坡上放置了传感器和光纤，以监测破坏层中的水压和水分含量，以及破坏表面的轴向应变和温度。还测量了斜坡脚部的流出量。实验山坡被建模为动力学中完全耦合的可变饱和水热力学问题。使用基于混合混合物理论并通过 Taylor-Hood 有限元增强的通用几何线性有限元模型。土壤响应使用 Bolzon-Schrefler 模型对非等温可变饱和土壤进行建模。使用全局二阶工作标准进一步评估失效机制。使用 KGE 指标分析实验结果和数值结果之间的比较，表明该模型能够正确再现导致失效的水文动力学和沿失效表面的应变。事实证明，全局二阶工作标准可以预测失败的倾向。