Spring frost remains a major climatic risk for winter wheat production. However, frost risk is often overlooked in climate change studies, especially those that rely on process-based crop models. This study assesses the spring frost risk for winter wheat in South Korea using observed trial data, a process-based crop model, and a large ensemble of climate data. Trial data from seven sites across South Korea suggest that the extreme yield loss in the 2019/20 season resulted from a combination of a warm winter, which accelerated phenology, and a cool April, which led to several frost events around heading. Projections with a calibrated DSSAT-Nwheat model and a large ensemble of climate data (HAPPI) suggest that the risk of yield loss due to spring frost will increase in the southern region of South Korea. However, this risk can be reduced by switching to later-maturing cultivars to avoid spring frost. In contrast, while the risk of yield loss due to spring frost in the central and northern regions is not expected to increase significantly, it will persist and can only be reduced by introducing frost-tolerant cultivars. Extending this analysis to include losses from other major stressors and linking it to socio-economic analyses will be needed for developing long-term strategies to boost wheat production, enhance self-sufficiency, and ensure food security.

中文翻译：

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韩国冬小麦春霜冻风险评估


春霜冻仍然是冬小麦生产的主要气候风险。然而，在气候变化研究中，霜冻风险经常被忽视，尤其是那些依赖于基于过程的作物模型的研究中。本研究使用观察到的试验数据、基于过程的作物模型和大量气候数据来评估韩国冬小麦的春霜冻风险。来自韩国 7 个地点的试验数据表明，2019/20 年度的极端产量损失是由于温暖的冬季加速了物候，而寒冷的 4 月导致抽穗周围发生了几次霜冻事件。使用校准的 DSSAT-Nwheat 模型和大量气候数据集合 （HAPPI） 的预测表明，韩国南部地区因春霜冻而造成产量损失的风险将增加。然而，可以通过改用晚熟的栽培品种来避免春季霜冻来降低这种风险。相比之下，虽然预计中部和北部地区因春季霜冻而造成产量损失的风险不会显著增加，但这种风险将持续存在，并且只能通过引入耐霜冻品种来降低。需要将这一分析扩展到包括其他主要压力因素的损失，并将其与社会经济分析联系起来，以制定促进小麦生产、提高自给自足和确保粮食安全的长期战略。