Nature Human Behaviour ( IF 21.4 ) Pub Date : 2025-01-27 , DOI: 10.1038/s41562-024-02085-2
Alexandra Bagaïni, Yunrui Liu, Madlaina Kapoor, Gayoung Son, Paul-Christian Bürkner, Loreen Tisdall, Rui Mata
Understanding whether risk preference represents a stable, coherent trait is central to efforts aimed at explaining, predicting and preventing risk-related behaviours. We help characterize the nature of the construct by adopting a systematic review and individual participant data meta-analytic approach to summarize the temporal stability of 358 risk preference measures (33 panels, 57 samples, 579,114 respondents). Our findings reveal noteworthy heterogeneity across and within measure categories (propensity, frequency and behaviour), domains (for example, investment, occupational and alcohol consumption) and sample characteristics (for example, age). Specifically, while self-reported propensity and frequency measures of risk preference show a higher degree of stability than behavioural measures, these patterns are moderated by domain and age. Crucially, an analysis of convergent validity reveals a low agreement across measures, questioning the idea that they capture the same underlying phenomena. Our results raise concerns about the coherence and measurement of the risk preference construct.
中文翻译:
风险偏好测量的时间稳定性和收敛效度的系统评价和荟萃分析
了解风险偏好是否代表一种稳定、连贯的特征,是旨在解释、预测和预防风险相关行为的努力的核心。我们通过采用系统评价和个人参与者数据荟萃分析方法来总结 358 种风险偏好测量(33 个面板、57 个样本、579,114 名受访者)的时间稳定性,从而帮助表征结构的性质。我们的研究结果揭示了测量类别(倾向、频率和行为)、领域(例如投资、职业和酒精消费)和样本特征(例如年龄)之间和内部的显着异质性。具体来说,虽然自我报告的风险偏好倾向和频率测量显示出比行为测量更高的稳定性,但这些模式受领域和年龄的调节。至关重要的是,对收敛效度的分析揭示了各度量之间的低一致性,这质疑了它们捕捉相同潜在现象的观点。我们的结果引起了人们对风险偏好结构的连贯性和测量的担忧。