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Research on dynamic fuzzy prediction method for surrounding rock stability of mountain tunnels throughout the construction period
Tunnelling and Underground Space Technology ( IF 6.7 ) Pub Date : 2025-01-15 , DOI: 10.1016/j.tust.2025.106390
Furui Dong, Shuhong Wang, Yong Yang, Mingzhu Ren, Meaza Girma Demisa, Rongzhou Zhang

The factors influencing the stability of the surrounding rock are complex and diverse, characterized by fuzziness and variability. This leads to continuous changes in the stability state of the surrounding rock during tunnel construction, posing a significant threat to construction safety. This paper proposes a dynamic fuzzy prediction method for the stability of surrounding rock throughout the entire construction period of mountain tunnels. Firstly, considering deformation, engineering, and geological factors, a stability evaluation system for the surrounding rock is established, comprising 3 primary indicators and 21 secondary indicators, with the stability state of the surrounding rock classified into five levels. Each evaluation indicator is quantitatively characterized throughout the entire construction period based on the specific of different construction stages. In this process, by defining traction points and traction control equations, an intelligent time-series prediction model for surrounding rock deformation based on traction correction is proposed to accurately obtain surrounding rock deformation indicators. Additionally, a combination weighting method based on the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and the Entropy Weight Method (EWM) is introduced to calculate the combined weight values of each evaluation indicator at key construction nodes. Simultaneously, a strategy for dynamically adjusting indicator weights is proposed. By defining a weight dynamic adjustment equation, the weights of indicators are smoothly adjusted during different construction periods, achieving real-time updating of indicator weights throughout the entire construction period. The accuracy and reliability of this method are validated through the case study of the Jingang Tunnel, and reasonable suggestions for subsequent construction are provided. This method enables stability prediction and evaluation of surrounding rock throughout the entire construction period, offering a new approach for risk assessment in tunnel construction.

中文翻译:


山地隧道全施工期围岩稳定性动态模糊预测方法研究



影响围岩稳定性的因素复杂多样,具有模糊性和可变性等特点。这导致隧道施工过程中围岩的稳定状态不断变化,对施工安全构成重大威胁。本文提出了一种山地隧道全期围岩稳定性的动态模糊预测方法。首先,综合考虑变形、工程和地质因素,建立围岩稳定性评价体系,由3个一级指标和21个二级指标组成,围岩的稳定性状态分为5个等级;每个评估指标都根据不同施工阶段的具体情况,在整个施工期间进行定量表征。在此过程中,通过定义牵引点和牵引控制方程,提出一种基于牵引修正的围岩变形智能时间序列预测模型,以准确获取围岩变形指标。此外,引入了一种基于层次分析法 (AHP) 和熵权法 (EWM) 的组合加权方法,用于计算关键构造节点处各评价指标的组合权重值。同时,提出了一种动态调整指标权重的策略。通过定义权重动态调整方程,实现不同建设期指标权重的平滑调整,实现指标权重在整个建设期的实时更新。 通过对金港隧道的案例研究验证了该方法的准确性和可靠性,并为后续施工提供了合理化建议。该方法能够在整个施工期间对围岩进行稳定性预测和评估,为隧道施工中的风险评估提供了一种新的方法。
更新日期:2025-01-15
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