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Evaluation of shield-tunnel segment assembly quality using a copula model and numerical simulation
Automation in Construction ( IF 9.6 ) Pub Date : 2025-01-16 , DOI: 10.1016/j.autcon.2025.105976
Xiaohua Bao, Junhong Li, Jun Shen, Xiangsheng Chen, Zefan Huang, Hongzhi Cui
Automation in Construction ( IF 9.6 ) Pub Date : 2025-01-16 , DOI: 10.1016/j.autcon.2025.105976
Xiaohua Bao, Junhong Li, Jun Shen, Xiangsheng Chen, Zefan Huang, Hongzhi Cui
The quality of shield-tunnel segment assembly is uncertain and quantifying the probabilistic coupling effects of these factors is challenging. This paper presents a method for assessing shield-tunnel segment quality using a copula model with numerical simulation. A two-dimensional joint probability-distribution model is developed to model influencing factors, establishing a reliability-based evaluation system for segment assembly quality. Key steps include tunnel section division, marginal and copula function selection, and reliability assessment, focusing on a large submarine-shield tunnel. A Monte Carlo simulation examines the impact of various copula models on reliability estimates, validating the proposed method. Key findings show that (1) the selection of marginal and copula functions significantly affects segment assembly quality and reliability, with the commonly used Gaussian copula not always being optimal, and (2) failure probabilities can vary by up to 84 times due to differing construction conditions and geological factors across tunnel sections.
中文翻译:
使用 copula 模型和数值模拟评估盾构隧道管片装配质量
盾构隧道管片组装的质量不确定,量化这些因素的概率耦合效应具有挑战性。本文提出了一种使用带有数值模拟的 copula 模型评估盾构隧道管片质量的方法。建立了一个二维联合概率分布模型对影响因素进行建模,建立了基于可靠性的管片装配质量评价体系。关键步骤包括隧道断面划分、边际和 copula 函数选择以及可靠性评估,重点是大型潜艇盾构隧道。蒙特卡洛模拟检查了各种 copula 模型对可靠性估计的影响,验证了所提出的方法。主要研究结果表明,(1) 边际函数和 copula 函数的选择显着影响管片组装质量和可靠性,常用的高斯 copula 并不总是最佳的,以及 (2) 由于隧道断面的施工条件和地质因素不同,失效概率可能变化高达 84 倍。
更新日期:2025-01-16
中文翻译:
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使用 copula 模型和数值模拟评估盾构隧道管片装配质量
盾构隧道管片组装的质量不确定,量化这些因素的概率耦合效应具有挑战性。本文提出了一种使用带有数值模拟的 copula 模型评估盾构隧道管片质量的方法。建立了一个二维联合概率分布模型对影响因素进行建模,建立了基于可靠性的管片装配质量评价体系。关键步骤包括隧道断面划分、边际和 copula 函数选择以及可靠性评估,重点是大型潜艇盾构隧道。蒙特卡洛模拟检查了各种 copula 模型对可靠性估计的影响,验证了所提出的方法。主要研究结果表明,(1) 边际函数和 copula 函数的选择显着影响管片组装质量和可靠性,常用的高斯 copula 并不总是最佳的,以及 (2) 由于隧道断面的施工条件和地质因素不同,失效概率可能变化高达 84 倍。