This study analyses how the standard of living for different social groups changed when Sweden developed from an agricultural to an industrial society and when the first steps towards a modern welfare society were taken. As a measure of living standards, we use the ability to overcome short-term economic stress caused by high food prices. We use individual-level longitudinal data from 1813 to 1967 for a rural/semi-urban area in southern Sweden with similar economic development, occupational structure, life expectancy and fertility to the country as a whole. We found that during the first part of the 19th century, when agriculture was reformed and grain became an export product, workers, but not farmers and other social groups, deliberately postponed births in response to rising food prices. Despite these efforts to maintain consumption, workers and their families suffered increased mortality risks during years of high food prices, indicating that they lived close to the subsistence margin and could not save to ensure consumption in bad times. In the second half of the 19th century, rising real wages improved workers’ living conditions and the mortality response to economic stress decreased. By the 20th century, as the economy progressed and welfare systems emerged, the mortality response disappeared entirely. In contrast, childbearing was still affected by economic cycles but now only during turmoil of the First World War and the 1918 influenza pandemic and not afterwards.

中文翻译：

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摆脱饥饿：1813-1967 年瑞典食品价格对福祉的影响


本研究分析了当瑞典从农业社会发展到工业社会以及迈出迈向现代福利社会的第一步时，不同社会群体的生活水平如何变化。作为衡量生活水平的指标，我们利用能力来克服高食品价格造成的短期经济压力。我们使用 1813 年至 1967 年瑞典南部农村/半城市地区的个体纵向数据，这些地区的经济发展、职业结构、预期寿命和生育率与整个国家相似。我们发现，在 19 世纪上半叶，当农业改革，粮食成为出口产品时，工人，而不是农民和其他社会群体，故意推迟出生，以应对不断上涨的食品价格。尽管采取了这些措施来维持消费，但在食品价格高企的几年里，工人及其家人的死亡风险增加，这表明他们生活在接近生存边缘的地方，无法储蓄以确保在经济不景气时消费。在 19 世纪下半叶，不断上涨的实际工资改善了工人的生活条件，死亡率对经济压力的反应有所下降。到 20 世纪，随着经济的进步和福利制度的出现，死亡率反应完全消失了。相比之下，生育仍然受到经济周期的影响，但现在只在第一次世界大战和 1918 年流感大流行的动荡期间，而不是之后。