In February 1825, the dikes broke after a spring tide in the Krummhörn region in East Frisia, Germany, causing a severe disaster. Although the flood did not claim many victims, substantial damage was done to the farmland, and the economic crisis that followed permanently changed the social structure in the Krummhörn. We study family reconstitutions of the region linked to information about socioeconomic status, detailed reports of the flood damage, and information on crop prices for the entire study period. We innovate on the literature through our reconstruction of property damage at the parish level, as well as of the economic development in the region, combined with family reconstitutions. We investigate the short-term impact of the flood on marital fertility and child mortality, as well as the long-term impact on age at first childbirth and age at first marriage of individuals who experienced the flood early in life. We use Cox proportional hazard models to study mortality. The timing and the likelihood of transitions are investigated with the help of mixed parametric cure models. We find that child mortality, but not infant mortality, increased in the flood aftermath, but that this increase in mortality was not attributable to the flood-related damage. Furthermore, we find no evidence of changes in the timing of first childbirth or marriage among the affected individuals. These findings contrast with the results of several other studies indicating that external shocks and crisis experience early in life affect life course outcomes.

中文翻译：

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1825 年 2 月洪水的后果：东弗里西亚 Krummhörn 地区的社会和人口变化


1825 年 2 月，德国东弗里斯兰 Krummhörn 地区的大潮后，堤坝决堤，造成了严重的灾难。虽然洪水没有造成多少伤亡，但农田受到了重大破坏，随之而来的经济危机永久地改变了 Krummhörn 的社会结构。我们研究了该地区的家庭重建，这些重建与整个研究期间的社会经济地位信息、洪水损失的详细报告以及农作物价格信息有关。我们通过重建教区层面的财产损失以及该地区的经济发展，结合家庭重建，对文献进行创新。我们调查了洪水对婚姻生育率和儿童死亡率的短期影响，以及对早期经历过洪水的个人的首次生育年龄和首次结婚年龄的长期影响。我们使用 Cox 比例风险模型来研究死亡率。在混合参数固化模型的帮助下研究过渡的时间和可能性。我们发现，在洪水过后，儿童死亡率（而不是婴儿死亡率）增加，但死亡率的增加并非归因于与洪水相关的损害。此外，我们没有发现受影响个体首次生育或结婚时间发生变化的证据。这些发现与其他几项研究的结果形成鲜明对比，这些研究结果表明，生命早期的外部冲击和危机经历会影响生命历程的结果。