How did the 1918 Influenza pandemic affect elections in Weimar Germany? We combine a panel of election results (1893–1933) with spatial heterogeneity in excess flu mortality to assess the pandemic’s effect on voting behavior across constituencies. Applying a dynamic differences-in-differences approach, we find that areas with higher influenza mortality saw a lasting shift towards leftwing parties. We argue that pandemic intensity increased the salience of public health policy, prompting voters to reward parties signaling competence in health issues. Alternative explanations such as pandemic-induced economic hardship, punishment of incumbents, or political polarization are not supported by our findings.

中文翻译：

---

1918 年德国魏玛流感大流行的政治影响


1918 年流感大流行如何影响魏玛德国的选举？我们将一组选举结果 （1893-1933） 与流感超额死亡率的空间异质性相结合，以评估大流行对选区投票行为的影响。应用动态差异中的差异方法，我们发现流感死亡率较高的地区出现了向左翼政党的持久转变。我们认为，大流行的强度增加了公共卫生政策的重要性，促使选民奖励在健康问题上表现出能力的政党。我们的研究结果不支持其他解释，例如大流行引起的经济困难、对现任者的惩罚或政治两极分化。