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Assessing geological structure uncertainties in groundwater models using transition probability-based realizations
Journal of Hydrology ( IF 5.9 ) Pub Date : 2024-12-25 , DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2024.132598 Shiqi Huang, Litang Hu, Binghua Li, Xia Wu, Lin Gan, Jianchong Sun, Menglin Zhang
Journal of Hydrology ( IF 5.9 ) Pub Date : 2024-12-25 , DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2024.132598 Shiqi Huang, Litang Hu, Binghua Li, Xia Wu, Lin Gan, Jianchong Sun, Menglin Zhang
The accuracy of groundwater flow simulations is heavily influenced by the geological structure model. Relying on a single deterministic model does not effectively address the inherent uncertainties. This study integrates deterministic hydrogeological frameworks with stochastic geological simulations using Transition Probability Geostatistical Simulation (T-PROGS) to enhance the simulation of hydrogeological structures in the Beijing Plain. We focus on extracting lateral heterogeneity from borehole data and employ clustering techniques to estimate the average lateral dimensions of various lithologies, which deepens our understanding of lateral heterogeneity. We also create multiple stochastic geological realizations to evaluate the uncertainties in geological models and their impact on groundwater flow simulations. The minimum number of stochastic realizations needed is determined by applying the information entropy theory. Hypothetical scenarios validate our methods, followed by a practical application in the Yongding River Plain. Our results show that the coefficient of variation (CV) and the width of the 95% confidence interval (CI_Width) from 30 stochastic groundwater level simulations correlate strongly with information entropy (IE) that indicates uncertainty in the geological models. Regions where observation well groups display high simulation uncertainty also exhibit high IE. The findings from the Yongding River Plain highlight the critical role of geological variability in groundwater simulation, emphasizing the need to incorporate geological uncertainty in complex aquifer systems through multiple geological realizations.
更新日期：2024-12-25
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