Climate warming and the associated intensification of extreme climate events (such as droughts, heavy precipitation, and heatwaves) present challenges to plant growth. Plant growth is influenced by a number of factors such as soil moisture, water demand by plants, temperature sensitivity, growth stage, and by irrigation practices in the case of crops. The response of plant growth to extreme climate events across a range of growing periods, climate regions, and agricultural land types under different irrigation strategies remains unclear. This study utilizes ten extreme climate indices and six drought indices to predict plant growth outcomes, as indicated by the end-of-growing season Gross Primary Production (GPP), across different growing seasons in Europe from 2003 to 2020. This work examines the impact of extreme climate events on plant growth with a novel explainable LightGBM model. This model elucidates the contribution of such events to plant growth, and helps to identify their tipping points. This paper's results demonstrate that early-season soil moisture and extreme absolute temperatures are key predictors in forecasting the end-of-growing season GPP, indicating potential drought memory. Plant growth correlates highly with extreme climate events in arid, cold, and temperate climates. In arid climates the extreme precipitation amounts are the predominant predictor of end-of-growing season GPP. Agricultural drought plays a leading role in the model prediction results in cold climates. Extreme climate events have a more pronounced effect on plant growth yield in rainfed cropland and grasslands compared to irrigated croplands. The implementation of irrigation strategies involving human intervention would help mitigate the impact of extreme climate events on plant growth outcomes.

中文翻译：

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评估极端气候事件对欧洲初级总产量的影响


气候变暖和与之相关的极端气候事件（如干旱、强降水和热浪）的加剧对植物生长提出了挑战。植物生长受许多因素的影响，例如土壤湿度、植物的需水量、温度敏感性、生长阶段以及农作物的灌溉做法。在不同灌溉策略下，植物生长在一系列生长期、气候区域和农业用地类型中对极端气候事件的响应仍不清楚。本研究利用 10 个极端气候指数和 6 个干旱指数来预测 2003 年至 2020 年欧洲不同生长季节的植物生长结果，如生长季结束时总初级生产 （GPP） 所示。这项工作使用新颖的可解释 LightGBM 模型研究了极端气候事件对植物生长的影响。该模型阐明了此类事件对植物生长的贡献，并有助于确定其临界点。本文的结果表明，早期土壤湿度和极端绝对温度是预测生长季结束 GPP 的关键预测因子，表明潜在的干旱记忆。植物生长与干旱、寒冷和温带气候中的极端气候事件高度相关。在干旱气候中，极端降水量是生长季末 GPP 的主要预测指标。农业干旱在寒冷气候下的模型预测结果中起主导作用。与灌溉农田相比，极端气候事件对雨养农田和草原的植物生长产量的影响更为明显。 实施涉及人为干预的灌溉策略将有助于减轻极端气候事件对植物生长结果的影响。