Despite the significant energy-saving potential of building retrofits, adoption rates remain low, highlighting a gap in understanding homeowners' decision-making processes. This study addresses the research question: How do techno-economic and socio-psychological decision-making rationales impact energy-efficient retrofitting adoption? To answer this, we develop an agent-based model (ABM) to simulate retrofit decisions, contrasting two approaches: a techno-economic model, which focuses on financial returns, and a socio-psychological model, which considers social influences and personal attitudes. The techno-economic model evaluates factors like technology lifetime and profitability, while the socio-psychological model applies the theory of planned behaviour (TPB), incorporating attitudes, perceived control, and social norms. Applied to the Dutch housing market, our ABM simulates retrofit adoption over 20 years, considering various policy scenarios, including a heat pump subsidy, insulation subsidy, and a ban on gas boilers starting in 2026. The model explores whether homeowners opt for heat pumps or continue using gas systems under different policy frameworks in a generic neighbourhood context, where social interactions and peer influence shape decisions. Our results show that the techno-economic decision-making framework projects higher adoption of heat pumps due to favourable net present values (NPVs) and financial incentives, while the socio-psychological rationale shows a preference for gas boilers, with financial incentives having limited impact. These findings suggest that while financial incentives are effective in driving economically motivated decisions, they may be insufficient when social and psychological factors dominate. This highlights the importance of policies that combine both economic and behavioural considerations to increase retrofit adoption and achieve meaningful energy savings.

中文翻译：

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基于智能体的社区建筑改造采用建模


尽管建筑改造具有巨大的节能潜力，但采用率仍然很低，这凸显了在理解房主决策过程方面的差距。本研究解决了研究问题：技术经济和社会心理学决策原理如何影响节能改造的采用？为了回答这个问题，我们开发了一个基于代理的模型 （ABM） 来模拟改造决策，对比了两种方法：一种是专注于财务回报的技术经济模型，另一种是考虑社会影响和个人态度的社会心理学模型。技术经济模型评估技术寿命和盈利能力等因素，而社会心理学模型应用计划行为理论 （TPB），结合态度、感知控制和社会规范。我们的 ABM 应用于荷兰住房市场，模拟了 20 多年的改造采用情况，考虑了各种政策情景，包括热泵补贴、绝缘补贴和从 2026 年开始禁止使用燃气锅炉。该模型探讨了房主在通用社区背景下是选择热泵还是在不同政策框架下继续使用燃气系统，其中社会互动和同伴影响影响了决策。我们的结果表明，由于有利的净现值 （NPV） 和财务激励，技术经济决策框架预计热泵的采用率更高，而社会心理学原理显示对燃气锅炉的偏好，财务激励的影响有限。这些发现表明，虽然经济激励在推动经济动机的决策方面是有效的，但当社会和心理因素占主导地位时，它们可能不足。 这凸显了将经济和行为因素相结合的政策对于提高改造采用率并实现有意义的节能的重要性。