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A congestion prediction model for optimizing emergency evacuation design of university libraries in China
Journal of Building Engineering ( IF 6.7 ) Pub Date : 2024-12-09 , DOI: 10.1016/j.jobe.2024.111537 Zhiwei Zhang, Wei Ling, Zunhui Yang, Xin Wei, Hua Wang
Journal of Building Engineering ( IF 6.7 ) Pub Date : 2024-12-09 , DOI: 10.1016/j.jobe.2024.111537 Zhiwei Zhang, Wei Ling, Zunhui Yang, Xin Wei, Hua Wang
An architectural floor plan considering emergency evacuation requirements minimizes casualty risks during disasters. Predicting potential congestion in emergency evacuation shortens evacuation time, and minimizes casualties. A congestion prediction model for the emergency evacuations on university libraries in China was developed by integrating Fire Dynamics Simulator (FDS), Agent-Based Modeling (ABM), and Machine Learning (ML). The library layout was generated using K-means clustering, and the integration of AnyLogic and PyroSim was used for fire emergency evacuation simulation. The model quantified the relationships between architectural factors and evacuation indexes, leading to the proposal of optimized design parameters to improve evacuation efficiency. Results revealed negative correlations between architectural factors and evacuation time. Wider safety exits and evacuation aisles, coupled with smaller furniture spacings, resulted in less congestion. Furniture left-right spacings had the most significant impact on evacuation indexes. When the safety exit width and the furniture front-back spacing were between 2.5 m and 3.0 m, the evacuation aisle width was between 3.5 m and 4.0 m, the furniture left-right spacing was between 1.5 m and 2.0 m, the emergency evacuation efficiency of university library was the best. The novelty of the proposed approach lies in that: (i) the cogestion prediction model successfully predicted the number and degree of congestion under various emergency evacuation scenarios, (ii) the proposed architectural design parameters significantly improved the evacuation efficiency of libraries. This method serves as a valuable decision-making tool, optimizing emergency evacuation designs for university libraries and guiding occupant safe evacuation research.
更新日期：2024-12-09
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