Changes in Mediterranean circulation patterns due to global warming may have strong socio-economic and environmental impacts. We analyze the future evolution of the Mediterranean surface circulation under different levels of global warming by using 28 multi-decadal simulations from a set of fully coupled and high-resolution regional climate models of the Med-CORDEX multi-model initiative. There is no model agreement for a significant basin-scale modification of the surface circulation. However significant and robust local circulation changes are identified. In particular, the circulation is expected to shift from cyclonic to predominantly anticyclonic in the northern Balearic, while a strengthening of the cyclonic circulation is expected in the southern Adriatic. Furthermore, our results show an increase in the Mediterranean circulation variability primarily associated with a general increase of meso-scale activity. Generally, we find a linear increase of the identified changes with global warming levels.

中文翻译：

---

地中海海面环流在不同全球变暖水平上的响应：一种多模式方法


全球变暖导致地中海环流模式的变化可能会产生强烈的社会经济和环境影响。我们通过使用来自 Med-CORDEX 多模式倡议的一组完全耦合和高分辨率区域气候模式的 28 个多年代际模拟，分析了全球变暖不同水平下地中海表层环流的未来演变。没有关于地表环流的重大流域尺度改变的模型协议。然而，已确定显着而强劲的局部环流变化。特别是，预计巴利阿里北部的环流将从气旋转变为以反气旋为主，而预计亚得里亚海南部的气旋环流将加强。此外，我们的结果表明地中海环流变化的增加主要与中尺度活动的普遍增加有关。一般来说，我们发现已确定的变化随着全球变暖水平的增加而呈线性增加。