Europe is expected to experience major climatic shifts during the 21st century but the impact on agricultural productivity from such changes is uncertain. Here, we combine proxy, instrumental, and model data to assess interannual to multi-centennial changes in central European agroclimate over the past 2,000 years and projections into the near future. Whereas early 21st century conditions are rare but not fully unprecedented, more than half of the area that was considered highly productive throughout the Common Era in central Europe currently falls outside of that definition. This trend will likely continue as even the most conservative climate projections push central Europe outside the range of past natural variability of changes to agroclimatic zones. Reconstructed extremes prior to the instrumental record align well with contemporary documentary records of societal upheaval. Forecasted changes to the main agroclimatic drivers require substantial adaptation in land use and agricultural management strategies of considerable costs.

中文翻译：

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中欧农业用地过去和未来的气候驱动变化


预计欧洲将在 21 世纪经历重大气候变化，但这些变化对农业生产力的影响尚不确定。在这里，我们结合了代理、工具和模型数据，以评估过去 2,000 年中欧农业气候的年际到多百年变化以及对不久未来的预测。虽然 21 世纪初的情况很少见，但并非完全史无前例，但在整个公元期间，中欧被认为高产的地区有一半以上目前不属于该定义。这种趋势可能会继续下去，因为即使是最保守的气候预测也会将中欧推离过去农业气候区变化的自然变化范围之外。在器乐记录之前重建的极端与当代社会动荡的文献记录非常吻合。预测的主要农业气候驱动因素的变化需要对土地利用和农业管理战略进行大量调整，这需要相当大的成本。