Despite historically low seismic activity on the Maidan Fault (MDF), the sudden Mw 7.0 Wushi earthquake in early 2024 underscores the urgent need to assess the seismic risk on this fault. This study utilizes Global Navigation Satellite System and Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar data to image the spatial distribution of interseismic coupling before the Wushi event along the MDF. The four asperities we identified indicate a high seismic risk for the MDF, with potential magnitudes of Mw 7.5–7.6, Mw 7.5–7.7, Mw 7.0–7.2, and Mw 6.8–7.0. Specifically, the Maierkaiqi segment has already accumulated seismic moment comparable to previous event. Furthermore, our comparison of the interseismic coupling model with the coseismic rupture of the Wushi earthquake reveals that the shallow compliant zone, creeping patches, and irregular fault geometry collectively constrained the rupture propagation. The consistency between the rupture and high coupling area also suggests that the obtained coupling distribution may represent potential earthquake-prone zones along the MDF.

中文翻译：

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2024 MW 7.0 乌石地震前天山麦丹断裂沿震耦合分布


尽管迈丹断层 （MDF） 的地震活动处于历史低位，但 2024 年初突如其来的 Mw 7.0 乌石地震凸显了评估该断层地震风险的迫切需要。该文利用全球导航卫星系统和干涉合成孔径雷达数据对乌石事件前沿 MDF 的地震间耦合空间分布进行成像。我们确定的四个凹凸表明 MDF 具有很高的地震风险，潜在震级为 Mw 7.5-7.6、Mw 7.5-7.7、Mw 7.0-7.2 和 Mw 6.8-7.0。具体来说，Maierkaiqi 路段已经积累了与之前事件相当的地震动量。此外，我们将地震间耦合模型与乌石地震的同震破裂进行比较，发现浅层柔顺带、蠕动斑块和不规则的断层几何形状共同限制了破裂的传播。破裂区和高耦合区之间的一致性也表明，获得的耦合分布可能代表沿 MDF 的潜在地震易发区。