The responses of South Asian Monsoon (SAM) circulation under global warming are known to be highly uncertain, leading to the widespread of SAM rainfall projections among models. Here, we show that the uncertain SAM circulation in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 models consists of two robust components that partly offset each other: a weakening component linked to a global thermodynamic constraint and a northward shift component understood through a regional 2D energetic perspective. We further attribute the robust northward shift of SAM circulation to positive cloud feedback over the Eurasia Continent and heat uptake in the Southern Ocean. A set of climate model simulations supports the finding that SAM rainfall increase is primarily due to the northward shift of circulation driven by extratropical processes. This energetic perspective opens new avenues for predicting monsoon rainfall by connecting circulation changes to radiative forcing, feedbacks, and ocean heat uptake.

众所周知，全球变暖下南亚季风 （SAM） 环流的响应具有高度不确定性，导致 SAM 降雨预测在模式中广泛存在。在这里，我们表明耦合模式比较项目第 6 阶段模式中不确定的 SAM 环流由两个部分相互抵消的稳健分量组成：一个与全局热力学约束相关的减弱分量和一个通过区域二维能量角度理解的北移分量。我们进一步将 SAM 环流的强劲北移归因于欧亚大陆上空的正云反馈和南大洋的热量吸收。一组气候模式模拟支持以下发现：SAM 降雨量增加主要是由于温带过程驱动的环流向北移动。这种能量视角通过将环流变化与辐射强迫、反馈和海洋热量吸收联系起来，为预测季风降雨开辟了新的途径。