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A numerical investigation of the effects of model parameterization on the delineation of source protection zones under uncertainty
Water Research ( IF 11.4 ) Pub Date : 2024-12-19 , DOI: 10.1016/j.watres.2024.123010
Allanah Kenny 1 , Theo S Sarris 1 , David M Scott 1 , Catherine Moore 2
Water Research ( IF 11.4 ) Pub Date : 2024-12-19 , DOI: 10.1016/j.watres.2024.123010
Allanah Kenny 1 , Theo S Sarris 1 , David M Scott 1 , Catherine Moore 2
Affiliation
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Source protection zone delineation has evolved over the past decades from fixed radius or analytical and numerical methods which do not consider uncertainty, to more complex stochastic numerical approaches. In this paper we explore options for delineating a source protection zone, while considering the inherent uncertainty involved in characterizing hydraulic conductivity. We consider a representative pumping well in an unconfined alluvial aquifer under steady-state flow conditions, with the hydraulic conductivity distribution inferred from borehole lithology data in the West Melton area near Christchurch, New Zealand. Lithologies are categorized according to their inferred hydraulic flow and transport properties, using two to four hydrofacies groupings. Probabilistic source protection zones are determined for alternative lithology categorization scheme and hydrofacies conductivity parameterization methods. Results show that the choice of calibration method significantly impacts the delineated source protection zone. In heterogeneous aquifers, the degree of protection offered by deeper pumping wells may be overstated, and forward particle tracking proved more comprehensive than backward tracking due to the complexity of flow paths near the well screen. Simple models, such as homogeneous models, require upscaled parameters to effectively represent aquifer heterogeneity, providing insights into how simplified source protection zone delineation could be made more robust in highly heterogeneous contexts.
中文翻译：
不确定性下模型参数化对源保护区划定影响的数值研究
在过去的几十年里，源保护区划定已经从固定半径或不考虑不确定性的分析和数值方法发展到更复杂的随机数值方法。在本文中，我们探讨了划定水源保护区的选项，同时考虑了表征水力传导率所涉及的固有不确定性。我们考虑了在稳态流动条件下在无承压冲积含水层中抽水的代表性抽水井，其水力传导率分布是从新西兰基督城附近 West Melton 地区的钻孔岩性数据推断得出的。岩性根据其推断的水力流动和输运特性进行分类，使用 2 到 4 个水相分组。为替代岩性分类方案和水相电导率参数化方法确定了概率源保护区。结果表明，校准方法的选择对划定的源保护区有显著影响。在非均质含水层中，较深的抽水井提供的保护程度可能被夸大了，并且由于井筛附近流路的复杂性，向前的颗粒跟踪被证明比反向跟踪更全面。简单的模型，例如同质模型，需要放大的参数来有效地表示含水层的异质性，从而为如何在高度异质环境中使简化的水源保护区划定更加稳健提供见解。
更新日期：2024-12-19
中文翻译：
不确定性下模型参数化对源保护区划定影响的数值研究
在过去的几十年里，源保护区划定已经从固定半径或不考虑不确定性的分析和数值方法发展到更复杂的随机数值方法。在本文中，我们探讨了划定水源保护区的选项，同时考虑了表征水力传导率所涉及的固有不确定性。我们考虑了在稳态流动条件下在无承压冲积含水层中抽水的代表性抽水井，其水力传导率分布是从新西兰基督城附近 West Melton 地区的钻孔岩性数据推断得出的。岩性根据其推断的水力流动和输运特性进行分类，使用 2 到 4 个水相分组。为替代岩性分类方案和水相电导率参数化方法确定了概率源保护区。结果表明，校准方法的选择对划定的源保护区有显著影响。在非均质含水层中，较深的抽水井提供的保护程度可能被夸大了，并且由于井筛附近流路的复杂性，向前的颗粒跟踪被证明比反向跟踪更全面。简单的模型，例如同质模型，需要放大的参数来有效地表示含水层的异质性，从而为如何在高度异质环境中使简化的水源保护区划定更加稳健提供见解。
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