Antarctic sea ice extent has seen a slight increase over recent decades, yet since 2016, it has undergone a sharp decline, reaching record lows. While the precise impact of anthropogenic forcing remains uncertain, natural fluctuations have been shown to be important for this variability. Our study employs a series of coupled model experiments, revealing that with constant anthropogenic forcing, the primary driver of interannual sea ice variability lies in deep convection within the Southern Ocean, although it is model dependent. However, as anthropogenic forcing increases, the influence of deep convection weakens, and the Southern Annular Mode, an atmospheric intrinsic variability, plays a more significant role in the sea ice fluctuations owing to the shift from a zonal wavenumber-three pattern observed in the historical period. These model results indicate that surface air-sea interaction will play a more prominent role in Antarctic sea ice variability in the future.

近几十年来，南极海冰面积略有增加，但自 2016 年以来，它急剧下降，达到历史最低点。虽然人为强迫的确切影响仍不确定，但自然波动已被证明对这种变化很重要。我们的研究采用了一系列耦合模式实验，揭示了在不断的人为强迫下，年际海冰变化的主要驱动因素在于南大洋内的深对流，尽管它是依赖于模式的。然而，随着人为强迫的增加，深对流的影响减弱，由于从历史时期观察到的纬向波-3 模式转变，南方环状模态（大气内在变率）在海冰波动中起着更重要的作用。这些模式结果表明，未来表层气海相互作用将在南极海冰变率中发挥更突出的作用。