This study projects future water demand scenarios in the Upper Indus Basin, focusing on reference, high population growth, increased irrigation, and lower population growth scenarios. The baseline scenario indicates a significant rise in water demand from 35.74 billion cubic meters (BCMs) in 2020 to 60.28 BCM by 2035, driven by population growth and increased domestic water consumption. High population growth exacerbates this demand, reaching 62.96 BCM by 2035. This research aims to address domestic water needs under various growth scenarios, considering factors such as population growth rate and per capita consumption. The study employs integrated hydrological modeling to simulate water demand under different socioeconomic conditions. Key methods include analyzing baseline water demand, projecting future scenarios, and evaluating the impact of increased irrigation and population growth on water resources. Results reveal that without intervention, stagnant water supply management will lead to severe water shortages. Increased irrigation, influenced by a 3% growth in irrigated land, pushes agricultural water demand to 56.37 BCM by 2035. Mitigation efforts, such as a 15% reduction in domestic water consumption, could decrease overall demand to 51.23 BCM by 2035. Further reductions are explored through a 50% cut in agricultural water consumption, involving efficient irrigation techniques. The study highlights the critical role of technology and farmer awareness in achieving these reductions, despite current irrigation scheme losses of 20%. A lower population growth scenario shows a contrasting trend, with water demand decreasing to 49.11 BCM by 2035, attributed to a 1.8% population growth rate and decreased per capita consumption to 82 m³ per day. These findings underscore the importance of proactive water management strategies, technological advancements, and demographic considerations in addressing future water demand challenges in the Upper Indus Basin. This research provides proper insight into the impact of varied socioeconomic scenarios on water resources and the necessity for strategic interventions.

本研究预测了上印度河流域的未来用水需求情景，重点关注参考、人口高速增长、灌溉增加和人口增长放缓情景。基线情景表明，在人口增长和家庭用水量增加的推动下，用水需求将从 2020 年的 357.4 亿立方米 （BCM） 大幅增加到 2035 年的 60.28 BCM。人口高速增长加剧了这一需求，到 2035 年将达到 62.96 BCM。本研究旨在解决各种增长情景下的生活用水需求，同时考虑人口增长率和人均消费量等因素。该研究采用综合水文模型来模拟不同社会经济条件下的用水需求。主要方法包括分析基线用水需求、预测未来情景以及评估灌溉增加和人口增长对水资源的影响。结果表明，如果不进行干预，停滞的供水管理将导致严重的水资源短缺。到 2035 年，受灌溉面积增长 3% 的影响，灌溉增加将农业用水需求推高至 56.37 BCM。到 2035 年，减少 15% 的生活用水量等缓解措施可以将总需求降低到 51.23 BCM。通过采用高效灌溉技术，将农业用水量减少 50%，进一步减少用水量。该研究强调了技术和农民意识在实现这些减排方面的关键作用，尽管目前的灌溉计划损失了 20%。较低的人口增长情景显示出相反的趋势，到 2035 年，用水需求将下降到 49.11 BCM，这归因于人口增长率为 1.8%，人均消耗量减少到每天 82 m³。 这些发现强调了积极的水资源管理策略、技术进步和人口因素在应对印度河上游盆地未来用水需求挑战方面的重要性。这项研究为不同社会经济情景对水资源的影响以及战略干预的必要性提供了适当的见解。