Glacial lake-moraine dam systems are widespread in cold alpine environments such as the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP). Without climate change, the lake-dam system exhibits stably dynamic evolution on a hydrological annual cycle. However, climate change may drive subtle alterations in the system's evolution. We developed a fully coupled Thermal-Hydraulic-Mechanical simulation platform considering ice-water phase change, showing robust performance under CMIP6-derived boundary conditions. Using this platform, we simulated climate warming-driven multiphysics responses and dam stability evolutions of a homogeneous, simplified conceptual model of the lake-dam system. We identified critical temperature thresholds for permanently frozen area thawing and abrupt changes in dam stability of this lake-dam system. Considering the current slope stability situations on the QTP, the SSP 5–8.5 climate warming scenario is conservatively anticipated to pose significant geological safety risks due to potential disaster chains from glacial lake failures. Our study provides insights into profound geological process evolutions driven by climate change.

中文翻译：

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气候变化驱动的青藏高原冰川湖无处不在的冰碛坝长期稳定风险：多物理场耦合演化视角


冰川湖-冰碛坝系统广泛分布在青藏高原 （QTP） 等寒冷的高山环境中。在没有气候变化的情况下，湖坝系统在水文年循环中表现出稳定的动态演变。然而，气候变化可能会推动系统进化的微妙变化。我们开发了一个考虑冰水相变的全耦合热-水-力学仿真平台，在 CMIP6 衍生的边界条件下显示出稳健的性能。使用这个平台，我们模拟了气候变暖驱动的多物理场响应和湖坝系统均匀、简化概念模型的大坝稳定性演变。我们确定了永久冻结区域解冻的临界温度阈值以及该湖坝系统大坝稳定性的突然变化。考虑到 QTP 上当前边坡稳定性情况，保守地预计 SSP 5-8.5 气候变暖情景将由于冰川湖溃决带来的潜在灾害链而构成重大的地质安全风险。我们的研究为气候变化驱动的深刻地质过程演变提供了见解。