Continuous long-term simulations of an ensemble of nine crop models covering the 1961–2080 period was employed to assess the expected impacts of climate change on the crop yield and water use for distinct crop rotations (CRs) in Europe. In this study, the likelihood of changes in two differently managed CRs (conventional and alternative) involving four important field crops (winter wheat, spring barley, silage maize, and winter oilseed rape) was assessed. The conventional agricultural practice (CR1) included only mineral fertilization with the removal of crop residues after harvest. The alternative agricultural practice (CR2) included cover crops and the application of mineral and organic fertilizers, with crop residues retained in the field. The simulations covered six sites in five European countries (Mühldorf and Müncheberg in Germany, Ukkel in Belgium, Ødum in Denmark, Milhostov in Slovakia and Lednice in Czechia) based on two distinct soil profiles (universal soil and site-specific soils). The universal soil was the same across all the sites, while the site-specific soils were typical of each region. Eight transient climate change scenarios (4 general circulation models (GCMs) under representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 2.6 and 8.5) were used to capture the possible evolution of future climatic conditions. Compared with those during the 1962–1990 period, the ensemble projections for the 2051–2080 period indicated average increases in the annual yields of all crops of 0.7 t/ha (RCP 2.6) and 0.8 t/ha (PCP 8.5) under both CRs and soil types. Under most climate change scenarios, the crop model ensemble projections of the winter wheat and winter oilseed rape yield increases agreed for CR2 but not for CR1. For spring barley, the simulated increase was more sporadic, with no significant difference between CR1 and CR2. In regard to silage maize, the changes in the simulated yields depended on site-specific climatic conditions. If the same varieties were planted in the future, yield reductions would be expected, except at the Ødum site, where the silage maize growth conditions would remain satisfactory, regardless of the CR and soil type. The results indicated greater cover crop biomass production, which could affect the long-term soil water balance and groundwater replenishment. The crop model ensemble further indicated a greater spatial variability in the yield can be expected, which is likely caused by the expected increase in the air temperature and not by the expected increase, or even decrease, in the total precipitation and increases in the actual evapotranspiration under climate change at all sites. This trend was greater under CR2 and could affect the long-term soil water balance and soil regime in the case of rainfed agriculture.

中文翻译：

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气候变化对欧洲两种作物轮作的影响（通过一组模型）


对涵盖 1961-2080 年期间的 9 种作物模型进行连续长期模拟，以评估气候变化对欧洲不同作物轮作 （CR） 的作物产量和用水的预期影响。在这项研究中，评估了涉及四种重要大田作物 （冬小麦、春大麦、青贮玉米和冬油菜） 的两种不同管理的 CR （传统和替代） 发生变化的可能性。传统农业实践 （CR1） 仅包括矿物施肥，并在收获后去除作物残留物。替代农业实践 （CR2） 包括覆盖作物以及矿物肥料和有机肥料的应用，作物残留物保留在田间。模拟覆盖了五个欧洲国家（德国的 Mühldorf 和 Müncheberg、比利时的 Ukkel、丹麦的 Ødum、斯洛伐克的 Milhostov 和捷克的 Lednice）的六个地点，基于两种不同的土壤剖面（通用土壤和特定地点土壤）。所有地点的通用土壤都是相同的，而特定地点的土壤是每个地区的典型土壤。使用了 8 种瞬态气候变化情景（代表性浓度路径 （RCP） 2.6 和 8.5 下的 4 个一般环流模型 （GCM））来捕捉未来气候条件的可能演变。与 1962-1990 年期间相比，2051-2080 年期间的集成预测表明，在 CR 和土壤类型下，所有作物的年产量平均增加 0.7 吨/公顷 （RCP 2.6） 和 0.8 吨/公顷 （PCP 8.5）。在大多数气候变化情景下，冬小麦和冬油菜单产增加的作物模型集合预测一致，CR2 一致，但 CR1 不一致。 对于春大麦，模拟的增加更加零星，CR1 和 CR2 之间没有显著差异。关于青贮玉米，模拟产量的变化取决于特定地点的气候条件。如果将来种植相同的品种，预计产量会降低，但 Ødum 站点除外，无论 CR 和土壤类型如何，青贮玉米的生长条件都将保持令人满意。结果表明，覆盖作物生物量产量增加，这可能会影响长期的土壤水分平衡和地下水补充。作物模型集合进一步表明，可以预期产量的空间变化更大，这可能是由预期的气温升高引起的，而不是由所有地点在气候变化下总降水量的预期增加甚至减少和实际蒸散量的增加引起的。在 CR2 下，这一趋势更大，在雨养农业的情况下，可能会影响长期的土壤水分平衡和土壤状况。